ebear

Have not traded this mkt. for more than 1 year because

1. ETF evolution seems to cover most situations & 2X feature long & short.

Will look into that. I'm a bit suspicious of ETF's though. Counterparties don't seem very reliable, what with insolvency being a key issue these days.

2. Easier to manage with less a/c's to keep track of.

It's all under one roof with IAB.

3. As you know there are a lot more sharks in the commodity pool & running the stops is an everyday occurrence.

Yeah, but at least they're honest sharks...LOL. What I mean is, you can't lie about the weather, and as far as I know, govt. agricultural statistics are still more or less honest. Not so sure about oil statistics, but I have good alternate sources for that. Overall, I feel it's better quality information that what you're getting in the equity and bond markets.

I have a theory I want to try out. I call it Patchakuti Theory (upside down world) a word I stole from our friend otto. The concept is simple. You get nothing in a T-bond or bank CD these days. You take extraordinary risk in equities of any sort, especially the juniors... so what's left? Commodities. The "safe" place to put your money...heh.

It works like this: Commodities trend over longer periods. Take wheat for example. From the breakout in late 2006 to early 2008 you had a clearly defined move that took you from around 400 at the breakout, to over 1000. Using no leverage at all (this is what kills you in any market) you'd have a double if you just kept rolling forward, and bailed when the MA's turned at around 875.

No leverage, no spreads, no pairs, just a straight cash position with only one variable to track - the price of wheat. Obviously you have to pay attention to the fundamentals of wheat, but those are easier to track than say the fundamentals of mining in Ecuador...heh.

I don't know if it will work. Seems like it could. It's standing the whole concept of futures trading on its head, which appeals to me. Is it any more risky than equities? Do governments stop production while they come up with a new wheat law? Do environmentalists block you from growing wheat? Do you get insiders granting themselves cheap wheat? Do they sell your wheat from under you at half the market price with narry a peep out of other wheat holders? I'm just looking for a way to reduce risk, and this seems like the (counter intuitive) way to do it.

4. Can use any useful info from these boards to apply anywhere.

Sorry I can't be more helpful.

No, that's fine. Any help at all is better than none. I'll report back as I get a clearer picture of this Patchakuti trade!

ebear