Well, new for me anyway...

1. Commercial Real Estate

It occurs to me that commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop. All these shopping centers, malls and office blocks that were built in the last few years, driven by an unsustainable expansion, are going to have trouble finding tenants. Same goes for high end apartments, hotels, casinos - they're all going to have excess tumbleweed blowing through the lobby.

Given that some of these co's had exposure to subprime, they've probably already been discounted (or taken out and shot) but what about the ones that dodged the bullet, or didn't go down that road in places like Canada, Europe and Asia?

Let's face it, commerce everywhere has dropped off a cliff. Along with that, so should demand for commercial real estate which will put pressure on highly leveraged situations at a time when money is already extremely tight. So, is this a good short, and if so, who are the likely candidates? Is anyone looking at this, or better yet, in the thick of it?

2. Cruise Lines.

The same logic applies here as above. Ships are major capital investments with high operating costs that can't be meaningfully reduced. These things have to keep sailing to pay for themselves, but who's gonna cruise when they're not even sure they'll have a job to come back to? It's a big ticket holiday. Now I realize people like to retreat into fantasy during tough times, so I wouldn't want to short a movie chain or theme park operation, but these cruise ships.... well, there's an awful lot of them around, and competition for the holiday buck is going to be intense, going forward (always wanted to say that). So, do we have a viable short here, or are they already toast?

2. Corporate bonds.

Has anyone looked at the spreads on these things lately? Historic stuff. A lot of it is well deserved of course, but not everyone got overleveraged in this cycle, and not everyone makes stuff that nobody wants. But they all got trashed to one degree or another, which is foolish since there's a lot of solid companies out there that will make it through this mess.

Meanwhile the yields are incredible - we're talking 12, 15 even 18%. Income trust territory, but without the looming 2011 deadline. So, do you buy them individually? Is there a fund that cherry picks this stuff? These yields have got to come in at some point, which gives you a nice capital gain in a few years, or worst case you simply hold to maturity and draw the 12, 15 or whatever. Is there something here I'm missing? To me, this seems like an opportunity looking for a buyer.

OK, those are my latest ideas. Not gold or silver I grant you, but if they make you money, who cares?

ebear