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Message: Gold technicals remain extremely bullish

Gold technicals remain extremely bullish

posted on Feb 23, 2009 04:48PM

not ivestment advice, just my opinion, do your own DD.

Lots of calls all around calling for a pullback but I wouldn't count on it.

If you pull up the following:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GO...

As I posted the other day, the last resistance (set in July 08) was in the $975 area. We bounced around there a bit the other day but as expected easily moved higher. The break out over $975 was confirmed by not one but three of the technical text book confirms 1. 3% above, 2 daily closes aboveand 3 a weekly close above.

Technicals call for old resistance to become support. So $975 becomes our support now. In a normal world this should be tested, so we can probably expect a quick pull to this number and a very nice run upwards.

Supporting this bullish trend are the RSI, MACD and ROC.

Again looking at the chart, notice the RSI from the end of October 2008. It confirms the move on gold the entire time, never diverging. It remains in tact- conclusion bullish.

With the MACD we get confirmations of each new high since mid November 2008 and no divergences. It is absolutely busting out on this new high- conclusion bullish.



Finally the ROC has remained extremely bullish since throwing out the buy signal by crossing zero in November. A sell signal from the ROC is given when it falls below zero, that doesn't seem to be in the near term cards so once again you must conclude that the trend remains in tack and is bullish.

The only thing that worries me a bit here is that barring some major event between now and tomorrow morning, it looks like the S&P will fall through its Nov low of 741. If this cascades into a violent move down, we might see as other posters here have pointed out, some selling of gold to fund liquidations in some hedge funds. We've seen it before so we will probably see it again. If that does happen I will be using the oscillators (mentioned above) to guide me.



Regards,

Buck





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