Re: What's the outlook for China ( on the way up )
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 24, 2009 09:11PM
We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!
I don't feel so much the irony of it , i saw this coming back in 1985 , before China seemed to be on this track i knew as the world was opening up to free trade here in Canada and the US as well as in Europe that it was bound to extend across the world and very " naturaly " money would go where it could make the best deal , and labour being a great part of production costs it would feel a strong incentive to exploit cheaper labor .
There's no realy good or evil out of it but there are consequences to the populations at large and as the trade barriers fell especialy in the financial sector it made it obvious as time went by that money had lesser incentives to be attached to any countries . What's worst actualy is that the free flow of capital mixed with tax havens has made it possible for large capital to exploit the poor without having to pay for social cost .
That's why those tax havens are so dangerous especialy in upcoming economic conditions . There's nothing simple when it comes to the movement of capital and economic relations between a mix of countries that are at different stage of economic development but we can expect things to develop along lines of lesser resistence .
We usualy go the easier route and the most profitable one in most things , and what's regrettable for labour in richer countries is an occasion to others who can take advantage of it elsewhere .
I remember in the mid 80's as was following closely the free trades talk between Canada and the US that it was of great importace to the US to include the free flow of capital , as it was also subsequently in GATT talks and all further negociations about opening trades across the world . The reason for the US to insist most on the free flow of capital was simply related to the facts that being the richest they had the most to gain from it .
As we know productivity is directly related to capital to make it simple money makes money , put otherwise it's obvious that if all costs are the same in all other matters money will give a great advantage in order to buy the best and most recent machinery or educate workers or develop new technology or simply by getting cheaper loans consequent to better ratings or by using the money to loan at higher interest then the price we get it for .
Economist could probably come up with a larger inventory of all the advantages money brings but this put things in perspectives though i'm sure u don't need these references yourself being an investor.
So as time went by money lost it's identity so to speak , not totaly of course but in a very natural those who own it don't want to share it so it loks for havens and goes where it profits the most and people can always follow it or have acces to it , is'nt it why we have so many business lawyers and accountants ? So many banks that will bend over in order to accomodate those who don't pay taxes as we saw recently ?
No i don't think it's ironic that workers here are loosing their jobs to some other in China , India , Indonesia, Brasil or elsewhere , it's a natural movement produced by the evolution of laws and relationship between countries that are changing constantly . But yes it's it's sad for people here and more then that it will create real problems to real peope and change our societies for the worst over the next century .
We can't make conclusions from the singular to te general , we can't say what's good for me is good for the whole population but somehow there are obvios similarities that can't be denied and the basic need of most people are pretty much the same and we can hardly honestly argue that in order for some people to have access to what is superfluous others must be denied theur basic needs .
But the facts of past and present history demonstrate that in all societies some have acces to the superfluous while others are denied their basic needs and it's also true between societies , so in all fairness it's only right that some things change with time or else some would be slaves for generations on end without any hopes .
And in truth The colonisation and development of the new world is a great exemple of everithing i said from the start , wether about the flow of capital and the use of "cheap labors" ( many of them slaves ) or about the change in power moving from europe to the america . Somehow all things future seem to be written in the past but in a riddle so that changes seem to be occuring unexpetedly or at least with some measure of surprise .
Yet i'd be hardpress to point where this evolution is taking us , is it realy to the advantage of humanity to consider all things through the socialising factors ? Are we all about economy and politics ? Is a successfull life has anything to do with the way one is perceived from others ?
For many people money seems to be a statement about their success or their intelligence or their " quality " as a human being , it would be hilarious if the consensus towards those interpretations did not force everyone to be enslave by those perceptions .
China yea china will gain from what's been coming for quite a while now and maybe some can choose to see irony from it and it all depend on the perspective one choose , i see it as a consequence of social evolution .
Istill think we can makes things less regrettable here if we act with vision and a sense of sharing , but that means old patterns must change and i'm not optimistic when it coms to quickly transform cultural habits or ideology ...
Good night
Tectol