4 reasons why Brazil will Outperform the World for the next 30 years.
posted on
Oct 27, 2010 12:18AM
We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!
4 Reasons Why Brazil Will Outperform the World for the Next 30 Years |
By James Dale Davidson
A millionaire is created every 10 minutes... in Brazil. In fact, Brazil has more millionaires than India or Russia.
A big driver of growing wealth has been the world-beating performance of the Bovespa, Brazil's leading stock exchange.
It may surprise many to see that the Bovespa has outperformed not only established markets in North America and Europe but also the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets since their 2007 high. This is only one hint of the long-term success I expect from Brazil.
So why will this country do so well? I'll give you four reasons today, starting with what is the most important one...
Economist Richard Ebeling toured Brazil in 1990. At the time, Brazil was suffering the worst of the hyperinflation caused by government spending beyond its means. He observed then:
"The only economic policies that can save Brazil are dramatic cuts in government spending, elimination of State regulations that not only hamper the private sector but also breed the pervasive corruption in the public sector, and the shutting down of the political printing presses that pour forth the tidal waves of inflationary money."
Astonishingly, Brazilian politicians took Ebeling's advice.
Led by Finance Minister Cardosa, President Franco's government attacked hyperinflation at its roots.
It did so with drastic cuts in government spending through the Plano Real.
This strategy cut spending to the level of available revenues. By implementing the Plano Real, Brazil actually did what the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) and the U.S. cannot bear to do. In the process, Brazil became "an economic giant in the span of one generation."
And Brazil's obsession with cutting inflation never left. It recently announced R$35 billion in spending cuts to slow economic growth from 9%. Good luck in trying to get the U.S. Congress to cut spending by $3.5 billion in an election year.
Another reason why Brazil is poised to do well is because it has...
As Nouriel Roubini recently told an audience of Brazilian investors in Sao Paulo, even if the Greek sovereign debt contagion were to spread through the OECD countries like a flash fire, it should barely singe Brazil.
The markets don't yet recognize that. But I believe it is true. Brazil is an almost self-sufficient economy, with low foreign trade dependence.
Exports make up just 14% of Brazil's GDP, closer to the current U.S level of 12% than those of the other BRIC nations. Exports make up more than 36.6% of China's GDP, and more than 30% of Russia's economy. India's export dependence is in the middle of the BRIC range at 23%.
China's economy is so dependent on exports to the U.S. that it will face dire trouble if U.S. consumers are unable to resume their spending orgy.
Russia is not a significant exporter of finished goods. It is better understood as a huge, rogue oil company run by veterans of the KGB. It has a secret police force and a foreign policy backed by nuclear weapons. Russia is not competitive in higher-value sectors. But it makes a lot of cash from exporting oil and gas to the rest of the world, particularly Europe.
India's export dependency is lower than that of China and Russia. But exports still account for about a quarter of its GDP, two-thirds more than in Brazil.
Every country in the world would be poorer if a global collapse dampened demand. But Brazil would survive more commodiously than most. Its growing middle class creates a vibrant internal market, with a vast upside to expand.
Brazil is set to pass Germany as the world's fourth-largest car market this year, with 3.3 million vehicles sold. But it can afford to add millions of vehicles to its roads without paying a massive tab for imported oil. The billions of barrels in the new Tupi field mean Brazil will enjoy a $50 billion annual surplus of oil for years to come.
It is self-sufficient in energy and bountifully endowed with almost every natural resource except coal.
Of particular note, Brazil is the only country in the world with large areas of fertile land available for immediate use. In fact, Brazil still has about 267 million acres of land that can be used for farming. That's almost as much as the U.S. currently dedicates to farming.
This good land is available cheaply, which helps make Brazil's agro sector the world's most profitable. Brazil's free market farmers make more money from their crops than heavily subsidized U.S. farmers.
And that's a big reason why...
Young families can afford only a few thousand acres in the Midwest. But in Brazil, they can buy tens of thousands of acres. As reported by the U.S. media, they are realizing gains in operating income as well as capital appreciation of their land.
Among the growing numbers of American farmers who moved to Brazil for a better life are Scott and Mandy Harker. In Idaho, they struggled to make a profit. They told U.S. News, "For us, it was like sitting on a sinking ship, waiting for it to go down." So they sold "everything" in Idaho and moved to Brazil.
Brazil is already the world's largest producer of beef and poultry. It is also a leading producer of coffee, sugar, soybeans, corn, orange juice, tobacco, and almost every other farm product. By the middle of this century, Brazil will account for 35% of all world agro production. That's more than twice as much as China.
Brazil not only has food in the pantry, it has money in the bank.
Unlike the U.S., Greece, Portugal, and Spain, Brazil has sufficient financial reserves for a "rainy day" - or "anos de vacas magras" ("years of the skinny cows"), as they would say in Portuguese. The country's total net debt as a percentage of GDP is a bare fraction of that of the U.S. And Brazil is sitting on a fat stash of currency reserves, while the U.S. has none.
I have previously told you about my prejudice toward Brazil. I am married to a beautiful Brazilian lady who has deepened my appreciation of the good things this country has to offer.
But the simple fact is that Brazil presents a tremendous amount of opportunity. I've already led thousands of readers to numerous double-digit gains (in a short amount of time) thanks to Brazil. There's no reason you can't join them.
You can do that by reading my Strategic Investments newsletter.
In the upcoming issue, I dig into the Brazilian millionaire culture... and expose opportunities that you don't hear about here in America.
We haven't yet opened up Strategic Investments to new readers, but plan on doing it in the coming weeks. To get access as soon as it happens, go here.
Take care,
James Dale Davidson