a sneaking feeling
posted on
Nov 01, 2010 02:21PM
We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!
The market is about to crash
Seems like there is a lot of expectation about an uptrend in the market ... even some of the "pessimists" speak of rising stock prices ... or did they just say equities are better than the US$ ... LOL ... there seems to be a lot of confidence in the market which usually is a precursor to a value bubble.
The election is upon us and the euphoria of replacing one set of corrupt politicians with the next will soon wear thin work. This corruption is seeded within the inexplicable desire to live beyond one’s means that predominates North American life. The pre-occupation of keeping up with the Jones’s in my youthful days was long ago replaced with outdoing the Jones’s.
When the Jones’s are other countries who have funded that excessive lifestyle for decades while the paper that is owed them is being increasingly debased it will be payed … by all of the current pension funds.
The elected folks will continue to placate that public in exchange for us overlooking their celebrity lifestyles … Robin Leach should do a documentary lifestyles of the rich and political. Yes debt will be added, pension funds will be locked up in courts as well as real estate owners who have been increasingly foreclosed upon
Those offered jobs will continue to not take the lower wages being offered since the difference between the free ride and working one's ass off for little more than government pays to sit, makes not working for the man more sensible.
Real GDP is about to plunge in addition to all of the rest of economic promises
... and the market will continue to rise … WHY.
Because the same fund managers that didn’t see last drop coming are again blinded to see reality … they will feed us the corporate lines about recovery and all of the new resistance points will one by one be the “bottom”. Watch out for 10,800 followed by 10,500, followed by 9,800 9,100, 8,500, 7100, 5,600, 4,000.
If you are still around by 4000 … chances are, there are still many of us left, so expect 2500 (the impossible to break 1000 dow increased by 150% which would make a lot more sense in terms of long term appreciation). If you believe hyper inflation is coming … don’t expect interest rates to stay low … expect more damage.
Companies valued at 20x earnings are essentially yielding 5% non compounded rate of return …. why hold them when most of the salaries in North America are too high because the rest of the world is unadvanced …ROFLMAO. When PE ratios get to around 7 … The market is getting to be fairly valued as long as long term interest rates are at 5 or less.
GLTA - and hoping to be wrong again.
orgy