It seems you have a great grasp on things, any observations on N. Africa, will Quadafy leave quietly. I believe these guys who have hoards of money and or gold do not really wish to die as martyrs but hold onto power till the last minute, then go live somewhere with the hoard. They are not usually as willing to go down with the ship when a life of luxury awaits a safe haven over.
Mr Duck is clearly unbalanced and has been for some time. I doubt if he even has an exit plan - he's grown too complacent and self-confident over the last 40 years to even think he'd need one. Besides, who would take him? Nicaragua? Frankly, I think his own guys will turn on him. That's been the pattern so far - army units changing sides, planes and ships bugging out, air force officers disabling jets. The only question is do they kill him, turn him over to the mob, or hold him in custody for trial as a war criminal?
Some of his people will definitely try to escape, maybe wearing a burka, like in Afghanistan. How far they'll get is anyone's guess. But Mr. Daffy? Uh uh. His goose is cooked, if you'll pardon the analogy.
Al Ebeara