Re: Analysis and prediction on PM's
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 09, 2011 01:33PM
We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!
I follow your reasoning, orgprophet, and would not argue against a stock market collapse in the short term. As per 2008, this would probably also drag down further the already depressed PM shares, though there are commentators saying "not this time".
However, a prominent current view is that the PM shares in particular have already been manipulated downward (one mechanism, the long bullion/short PM shares trade) and that one objective is to frighten weak holders out of their positions. So, emulating your example and liquidating, aren't we just playing into the "big boys" hands?
I suppose what I am asking is, if we hold and take a further major hit, won't most of the PM shares eventually rebound and in fact, move more rapidly upward than the underlying bullion price? I guess it boils down to how long this process will last and if one is prepared to risk having funds tied up for possibly an extended period of time.
Before 2008, I was anticipating a major hit and sure enough we had it and I rode it out without immediate major selling. Can history repeat itself so soon? Or do you think we might be in the tank for years and years and most junior PMs go bust through the attrition of ongoing expenditures?
Any thoughts on this, anyone?
O.F.