Not talking about the futures here, I'm referring to the insane financial commercials that appeared on TV circa 1999/2000. Anyone remember those? Damn, I wish I'd recorded them. There was the old Jewish lady who got a stock split (like that was something to cheer about) the guy with the Magic 8-Ball (I have one of those) the gay guy who knew more about discount brokers than the Wall St. suit he was giving a shoulder rub to (you can't make this stuff up). Then there was Tex, or Rex or whatever and his son in their plaid shirts drawling on about futures and options on a late night infomercial. Man, when you saw all that you just had to know, everyone was IN. And when everyone is IN, there are no more buyers, so the smart thing to do is get OUT.

It all seems so simple in hindsight. Looking back at the housing bubble, you could have made that call. Countrywide was a big red flare and Bear Sterns was a million watt lighthouse, and yet I missed them both. Only good risk management saved my butt - ie. what Cramer once said: Your first loss is your best loss.

This time around the Tell has to be Europe. Like my poor lost sister, they've been living beyond their means for 30 years and now it's crunch time. The bill is due, and it's a big one. The same is true for America, but they have this thing called a reserve currency, and until that's abandoned, they'll be last man standing. That might not take too long though if Europe comes unglued, and frankly I can't see anything that can stop it at this point. Can you?

ebear