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Message: AUGURIES - SCIENTISM

Auguries — ScientismSeptember 14, 2012

Kevin Michael Grace

Witches: Honi soit qui mal y pense.

Gold was up (at press time) $33.50 (+1.9%) for the week to $1,772.80, and silver was up $4.21 (+13.8%) to $34.69. GoldCore attributed September 14 the rises to gold’s good friend Bernancus Magnus. “Bernanke’s announcement of further money printing and ultra-loose monetary policies saw gold and silver surge in all currencies…. Bernanke [has] embark[ed] on QE3 or what would be better described as ‘Currency Debasement 3’… The scale of the open-ended monetary commitments suggests the Fed is worried about another Great Depression and an economic collapse.”

The great Thomas Szasz died this week after a lifetime devoted to truth. He was what James Burnham would have called a Machiavellian; that is, he sought to describe the world as it is, not as some would like it to be. Szasz was a master of the aphorism, which he said was “either a half-truth or a truth and a half.” One of his best: “In the animal kingdom, the rule is, eat or be eaten; in the human kingdom, define or be defined.”

Our elite has internalized this rule. Here’s Robin Wells (Mrs Professor Dr Paul Krugman) in the Guardian: “It’s hard to know if the Republicans simply want to destroy the economy in order to deny Obama re-election or if they really believe that Bernanke is corrupting the soul of America. In the end, it doesn’t really matter. It’s what Ben Bernanke does that matters…. I suspect that the right’s unyielding and vitriolic nihilism towards the economy has been an education for Professor Bernanke. From Thursday’s actions, we can only infer that it has finally freed Chairman Bernanke to do the right thing.”

Ooh, nihilism, that’s bad. As we know from The Big Lebowski, even worse than Nazism: “I mean, say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude; at least it’s an ethos.”

Of course the Republicans don’t want to “destroy the economy”; they simply want an end to Bernancus Magnus’ reign. “Nihilism” means a belief in nothing. Now, the Republican economic platform is as firm as a Nerf ball, but it is something.

Szasz coined the term “scientism” to describe the praxis of Wells and her ilk. He argued that science (and neoclassical economists certainly consider themselves scientists) had devolved into a form of religion. When faced with opposition to their dogmas, the scientists do not meet it with rhetoric, they respond, “Burn the witch!” For apostasy from the new faith can be ascribed only to malice.

Wells argues, “The open secret of the present, post-crisis monetary state of affairs is that QE3 will have very little direct effect on the economy, just as the previous rounds of quantitative easing had very little direct effect.” If that is the case, one wonders why Bernanke bothers.

Wells denies that QE3 will boost inflation, conveniently forgetting that the official inflation indices have been so juked as to be useless. But all these geysered billions must end up somewhere.

In the Daily Mail, Mitch Feierstein, author of Planet Ponzi, points out that a major destination has been the equity markets. “The German stock market index, the DAX, is up 46% in the past 12 months and has almost doubled from its 2009 lows. Would you like to write down on a sheet of paper all the good things that have happened to the German economy since 2009? If you do, you can use a very small sheet and still have room for plenty of doodles.”

Feierstein concludes, “We need sound money and an end to financial engineering… Central banks need to forget about the ‘health’ of the financial markets altogether. It’s not their health that matters; it’s ours.” Sound money, you say? Heresy!

A prediction. Because the ascent of precious metals is a rejection of Bernankism, the scientists will soon demonize those who invest in them. Confusing cause with correlation, they will blame “metalheads” for the economic woes to come and demand they be treated as “wreckers” were in the Soviet Union.

As for QE3, let’s give the final word to Thomas Szasz: “Two wrongs don’t make a right, but they make a good excuse for a third wrong.”

Witches: Honi soit qui mal y pense.

In the meantime, miners want to know when the Bernanke Beneficence will trickle down to them. On September 12, Canaccord concluded of the Vail Precious Metals Summit, “After a challenging year for the juniors, there was an optimistic sentiment at the conference. A series of disappointing results from the larger-cap senior and intermediate producers have shifted some of the focus towards the smaller, more manageable projects possessed by the juniors. However, while the sentiment was viewed as positive, and new momentum in precious metal prices was certainly welcome, our conversations with institutional investors were more reserved.”

And now to cases. Canaccord reported September 12 the following price targets: Alexco Resource T.AXR $8.25 (currently $4.44), Bear Creek V.BCM $5.75 (currently $3.20), Canaco Resources V.CAN $0.65 (currently $0.36), Colossus Minerals T.CSI $9 (currently $5.43), Fortuna Silver T.FVI $6.50 (currently $5.48), Golden Minerals T.AUM $9 (currently $5.69), Goldgroup T.GGA $1.80 (currently $0.46), Keegan Resources T.KGN $5 (currently $3.80), Levon Resources T.LVN $1.50 (currently $0.50), MAG Silver T.MAG $17 (currently $11.71), Orezone Gold T.ORE $4.25 (currently $2.04), Sandstorm Gold V.SSL $12 (currently $10.33), SilverCrest V.SVL $5 (currently $2.76) and Timmins Gold T.TMM $1.65 (currently $2.76). All are rated “Speculative Buy,” except for Timmins, which is a “Hold.”

Reuters reported September 13 that CIBC has cut the price target of Pretium Resources T.PVG from $18.50 to $15.50 based on “updated resource estimates for its Brucejack Project” (currently $13.15).

At the Globe and Mail, Darcy Keith reports September 13 that Ingrid Rico of M Partners has raised her price target for Panoro Minerals V.PML from $1.20 to $1.40 based on “a new resource for its Cotabambas project in Peru that doubled contained copper-gold estimates and included a new silver resource” (currently $0.77).

“In the animal kingdom, the rule is, eat or be eaten; in the human kingdom, define or be defined”—Thomas Szasz

At Seeking Alpha, Joseph Dedvukaj calls Paramount Gold and Silver T.PZG “the ultimate miner’s bliss.” He argues that it is scandalously undervalued, quoting Michael Murphy of New World Investor: “Gold is at $1,700… Companies don’t pay half the value of the gold in the ground anymore, mostly because extraction costs have increased. But they do pay 33% of the value. Finally, PZG now has 147 million shares outstanding, and they also own Sleeper. So the math is pretty simple. 3.13 million ounces x $1,500 x 0.33 = $1.55 billion/147 million shares = $10.54 share. So PZG could sell San Miguel any day for $10+, give the cash to shareholders and still have Sleeper to develop. Or they could sell the whole company today for $15.” (Currently $2.62.)

From the same source, John James is sweet on Prophecy Platinum V.NKL, “[Its Yukon Wellgreen PGM-nickel project is] world class. The core looks great, and I’m sure the assays will knock some socks off!” (For a FP feature story on Prophecy, see here.)

And at the Gold Report, Aleksandra Bukacheva likes McEwen Mining T.MUX: “The consolidated silver production profile for McEwen between its interest in an Argentinean mine and Mexico silver will be eight million ounces. So far, everything is on schedule.” She believes the following are likely takeover targets—Imperial Metals Corp T.III: “The management of Imperial is very disciplined, which is great for cost control. But the company still needs $300 million, which will most likely come in the form of a debt financing” and Minera IRL T.IRL: “[It] has a market cap of $90 million, and both Don Nicolas and Ollachea could be worth close or more than that as a standalone. That asset base makes the company very attractive.” (For a Resources Wire feature story on Minera, see here.)

Finally, who will be the next celebrity to suffer a catastrophic meltdown? Lindsay Lohan and Amanda Bynes have strong backing, while dark horse Willow Smith is creeping up the tote board. Auguries is putting its money on Twitter addict Miley Cyrus, who demonstrates once again that it is often difficult to distinguish late-night tweets from suicide notes. Some examples from September 13: “Thought of the day: maybe it’s not that they love you less, they just love you the most they are capable of loving”; “Sometimes i feel like i love everyone more than they love me. hatttte that feeling”; and saddest of all, “Ever feel like you want just….something more. not sure what exactly…passion perhaps?” William Shakespeare had the best line on Twitter, 300 years before it was invented: “The expense of spirit in a waste of shame… All this the world well knows; yet none knows well/To shun the heaven that leads men to this hell.”

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This was written by Kevin Michael Grace. Posted on Saturday, September 15, 2012, at 8:19 pm.
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