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Message: Why the SHALE BOOM will last for Years
Why America's Shale Boom Will Last For Years
Rob Wile
There remains controversy over just how long America's current energy boom will last.

Some, like University of Chicago professor Raymond Pierrehumbert, argue we are totally overlooking the rapid depletion rate of shale oil and gas wells. This is among other signs of a slowdown.

And there's also been vocal opposition to the practice itself, as evidence has shown fracking can contaminate groundwater and cause earthquakes. Support is mounting in New York to to maintain the state's fracking moratorium.

But there are plenty of experts who would argue such notions are off the mark.

Using data from the Energy Information Administration and Canadian energy consultancy ITG, we have put together what we think is a comprehensive review of the American shale story. Ultimately, we think that you'll conclude that "Saudi America" is real and here to stay.


Quick review: Fracking involves injecting large volumes of fluids and small particles like sand into a well to free up oil or gas.

Reuters

It's a great way to access otherwise hard-to-reach energy.

Currently, 1,752 wells are in operation, drilling both shale and conventional rocks in the U.S.

But the maximum production rate for a single well lasts just a few years, even for wells in the country's most popular shale plays. Skeptics say this is a big red flag.

EIA

Indeed, Ohio recently vetoed a proposal to force drillers to disclose monthly production data, which makes some analysts even more suspicious.

But, many shale plays are so enormous that only tiny portions have been extensively production-tested, the EIA says.

EIA

Source: EIA

So, despite the rapidly falling production rates per well, there are huge numbers of wells to come.

EIA

The Marcellus Shale currently has around 12,000 wells. Industry estimates suggest this number could head north of 100,000.

"The long-term outlook for shale/tight oil and gas production is supported by the large area extent of the plays and hence the number of wells that can be drilled," the EIA's Sam Gorgen told us. Even in their worst-case scenario, the EIA says oil production will merely flat-line, not drop off.

EIA

The same logic applies for shale gas.

EIA

The further you get into production, the more realistic reserve estimates get. But they're only down modestly.

EIA

So here's the truth: While the average well only lasts so long, we have miles of wells to drill before the American energy boom goes to sleep.



www.businessinsider.com

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