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Rudyard Kipling begins his poem “If” with a challenge to his fictional son; “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs”. In these difficult and demanding times such a challenge confronts us all.
The morning news brings with it threats of war and disease, high inflation, the end of democracy as we know it, and of course the spectre of bear markets. In such an environment maintaining one’s composure and ability to think rationally is a tough task. It seems a requirement now that all theories be expressed loudly and in the extreme.
The middle ground can be a lonely place these days. The situation is made worse and intensified by an onslaught of opinions (often presented as facts) from ”experts” and the media, who seem to conveniently forget the awful track record of humans in general and themselves in particular to foresee the future. Stock market prognosticators are particularly susceptible to this failing, myself included. (Although I like to believe I feel bad and humbled when I am wrong.)
Not so Jeremy Grantham who was on tv this morning gloating about predicting the current market decline without mentioning he’s had the same outlook every year since 2013.
There’s also a lengthy list of pundits who have been forecasting high inflation for over a decade, but do not seem embarrassed to say “I told you so” now that inflation is here. I could go on but suffice it to say there are almost infinite examples of bad information or misinformation that have only served to confuse us all.
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By The Way - January 2022
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