When investing, I try to look at different scenario to give myself an estimate of how much it could be worth.

I mainly look at 4 different markers to evaluate the value of a company

1-            The values of the asset in their current state or liquidating value

2-            The value of sale if someone were to purchase the asset or the replacement value

3-            The multiple of revenue

4-            The multiple of net profit

In some case it is helpful to look at management qualities and potential long term developments. But my goal is to find a company that is worth more than what I would be paying for. You can always have new management and new ways of running the company but if assets are not there. It is more difficult to get some value.

For point 3-4 I usually evaluate both, now and few years from now if I look at long term investments.

The value of assets:

Abcourt Recently got a loan on asset alone, not the mine, not the company, but the equipment. The loan was for 6.5 M$ and If we look at liquidating asset comparing to other company and the fact that the bank gave money. My own estimate is that the asset should be worth about 80M$ in their current state. They have all Equipement for 2 mines, a complete mill, lots of Equipement to restart a third mine that was value at 7M$. When we look at prices on the use market for all of their assets, It would give me a good 80M$ value should they decide to dismantle and sell all. Right now the whole company has a market cap of 40M$. Therefore, my guess is that it is worth twice as much as what I am paying for today.

The selling value or the replacement value is sometimes a lot more interesting. Because that would happen in a case were someone needs our assets.

In this case, to build a 750TPD mill today like the one we have at Sleeping giant would cost in the 100M range. To develop mine like Elder and Sleeping giant, build galleries and tailing. It would cost a good 40M each. To buy land with prospective assets like Flordin and discovery would be few million dollars each. To acquire a past producing silver/zinc mine like Barvue with all current equipment, someone could easily have to pay in 20 to 40 M$. Therefor, my estimate of the value base on the selling of assets through out time would be in the 200M range. That is a 5 fold from today’s market value.

When I look at revenue, I like to put a 5-10  time the revenue in value because that is what could be a conservative amount for a producing asset.  Any kind of business with good margin could get this kind of return base on the revenues.

In their presentation, they forecast being able to produce about 40K ounces per year of gold in a very near term. At today’s price that would be about 85M$ with a multiple of 10 that would give me a value of 850M$ compare with 40M$ today. But that is speculative and base on the fact that they would achieve production target. So let’s just look at their current revenue that should be in the 25M$ range.

If I apply my usual estimate on the revenue, this could mean the companie is worth between 125 and 250M$. Even today I believe that at 40M$ it is under what it should be getting.