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Message: A PM I would like to share...

A PM I would like to share...

posted on May 07, 2008 05:22AM

I received a PM from a member here (name withheld) and I would like to share the response in case it is of any help to anyone.

Thanks for the PM. As the stock prints above resistance levels, greedy hands jump on board and push the stock up. Eventally it becomes overbought and the bulls get nervous. People will sell at this point and take their profits. Others will see that the momemtum has stopped and they will start to feel uneasy and sell too. Greed gets replaced by fear and the selloff is underway (pull).

You can use Bollinger Bands or any of the oscillators like Stock or RSI to see when a stock has reached an 'overbought' position. The tricky part is with trends. Oscillators give off the wrong overbought signal if a stock is in an upwward trend and it is best to use moving averages. APH was in an upward trend for most of February and showed as 'overbought' for most of this time.

You can use Fibonacci lines to predict how much the stock will pull. You can also use Fib lines to estimate the retracement when it is trending down. I have posted a few images with Fib line in my charts.

Hope this helps.

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