Ground Floor....
posted on
Sep 14, 2011 09:45PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
...and hopefully going up!
Ok, let's get down to the brass tax of why I am bullish on this stock at this time and why I think this is a unique time to buy AND why anyone who reads this (which may be Trace if I'm lucky) might even be ahead of the curve.
Forbes and Manhattan. Not a name many people will recognize but this privately owned company is the parent to many of the commonly known stocks that trade on the TSX and TSX-V on a daily basis.
Check out this link to see what I mean.
http://forbesmanhattan.com/English/Portfolio/FM-Group-at-a-Glance/default.aspx
If you surf around you will find that F&M Companies Market Cap is in the range of $8B! This is spread around probably dozens of companies but they share expertise, marketing, office space, geos, Board Members and so on and so on.....it's actually a very smart business model when you think of so many of the juniors struggling to accumulate knowledge, experience and money.
Actually, if you are interested...check out this presentation to see what I mean.
http://forbesmanhattan.com/English/Presentations/default.aspx
Ok, so you have this proven machine backing many juniors. Now you have the residue of what is essentially a shell company in Alder Resources after the Colombian experiment didn't pan (claim they were sold a bill of bad goods). You have one of the sons of the Patriarch of this company acting as President of the company (that's Rene Bharti) who has already been slaughtered in his first go around with Alder.
So what do they do? They lean on one of their best and most experienced geos in their firm, Don Dudek. I won't go on and on but Don has already been a part of building 2 +1$B companies, including one that was sold to Teck for 4.1B acting as Exploration Manager for Aur Resources and the SVP of Exploration for Avion Gold.
In a nutshell? Don has spent the better part of his career travelling the globe and looking at properties. In fact, he claims he has seen possibly even over 1000. It was his job to look at and analyze properties and according to himself, he is very picky. Very picky.
The Bharti's ask Don if he would be up for helping them revitalize Alder to which he agrees. Don knows 1000 properties all over the world and says there are about 5 he would consider working on. Out of those 5, the timing needs to right in order to strike a deal. Alas....here we are in Nicaragua.
When I read the NR about this property, I was underwhelmed. Now that I understand a bit more, I am overwhelmed. Essentially we are looking at an old open-pit gold copper porphyry mine that closed in the 70's. There was quite a bit of drilling that was conducted, none of which information can be used with todays 43-101 standards but I think Don believes the old tailings piles are already worth their weight in .7% copper and .7g/t gold. They think they could make short work of proving these up and drilling out the existing mine which is open in all directions and only approx 65m deep.
So what's the big deal? According to Don, there just simply isn't a whole heck of a lot of large scale deposits out there in the world that the 'big guys' might be interested in. Is this one? He seems to think there is a fairly decent chance of that. He thinks .7%copper and .7g/t gold on a large scale is going to be what the big guys are going to be looking at (see Barrick taking over Equinox for $7B as an example). They want SCALE.
Nicaragua is relatively underexplored from what I know. It has only recently been written up as a potential mining destination, but many people may know that it has surfaced as a premier vacation destination, particulary for surfers (from many people I know who have been there). It's kind of like the next 'Costa Rica' from what I know - North Americans moving there etc.
So what's the status with Alder. Well, apparently $1.7M in the bank, they have a great man on the ground on-site, they have engaged an expert on this actual property that Don actually remembers from his time spent there years ago.
The plan? Drill it immediately and get results and SP up immediately and hopefully get warrant holders to cash them in, in order to avoid any dilutive financings. Their goal is to have this done by November, which I found to be ambitious but they appear to be confident.
Why do I know all of this? Well, as a bag holder of Alder for quite some time I have it on my watch list and noticed the volume and SP started to randomly increase a few weeks ago. Something else was up other than the SP. I did my DD and saw that this knew Chairman, Don Dudek was buying up lots of stock on the open market even though he just received 350k shares for free. This guy was driving the SP up all on his own!
When I saw this I called my broker at GMP who has friendly connections with Rene and FM and told him to find out what the hell was going on, since he sold me this POC stock last year. He booked a meeting for last week and I made it off my arse to join him.
That's when I was able to gather all of this information. Had an hour meeting with Don and Rene and was really, really impressed with Don's knowledge and confidence. There is nothing slick about Don, and I'm sure there is a videocast of him somewhere so you could see what I mean. The cool part of this meeting was at the end when they said that this was virtually the first meeting they have had about Alder with anyone else other than themselves. No brokerages, shareholders, investment firms, geos...nobody. The slides were put together for this meeting and I assume it was maybe even like a dress rehearsal for them.
Downsides? Well, you're getting this from an Stockhub for starters. Apparently there is a village right beside the open-pit mine. Well, not apparently because they showed a picture of it, so these people would need to be moved. That's a problem. The response to that is that they believe there are several other great targets to drill and mine so there is leverage there and they do not need to use the existing mine. That and that they need jobs.
Also, they only own 65% as per their agreement. If it works out, they'd probably have to take out the other company.
Infrastructure? All old equipment is useless but the best thing is that it is very near a port town and very easy to ship from. I didn't ask but I assume there is power and labour around if there is a village existing on the old mine.
So, there's the story....as short as I can make it. I could probably ramble on a lot more about other details but I think that gives the basics.
I've been trying to accumulate some more on the cheap without much success. At this point I think it's a neat opportunity I wanted to share - and obviously do invest at your own risk. I've been high on lots of investments that haven't panned out in the past but I think this one is really decent one considering it's just getting started. I'm comfortable under 13 cents...after that I'm sure there will be ebbs and flows.
It's one to watch, at a minimum.
B