No reason for the vote to fail. I didn't even bother voting since it's going to happen between management, LMM, IFC and ICL shares. Even if everyone else was inclined to vote no, not enough of them would bother voting.

I get a feeling the AIM listing was sort of a Plan B and also negotiation leverage vis a vis ICL. They must have known ICL was interested by November when the application was announced. ICL might have been wanting to drag its feet a bit or wait for a lower price. The prospect of AAA listing on AIM gives them an incentive to hurry up and do the deal while the price was really low. It's also a plan B in case things don't go as expected with ICL and they really do need to attract more bids, even if it's retail, to help with other financing options.

Having an AIM listing now or not doesn't really help, IMO. It enables more retail and HFTs to participate, but with the float retail can't really drive the long-term price and HFTs are not in it long enough to have a lasting impact. Insitutional buy-side is what will drive the long-term price here.

I'd like to see LMM start buying on the open market. I think there is potential for them to start doing this prior to debt financing announcements. Farhad has publicly stated that there is a lot of institutional buy side that wants equity but the company is concerned with dilution.

LMM and IFC both passed on their option to participate in the ICL PP to maintain their share of equity (despite having the right to participate at lower than market pricing). So are they tired of giving Allana money and are prepared to watch their investment fail? Not likely. If we assume they are committed to seeing this project succeed, then it means they didn't participate in the equity finance because the company does not need the money (or, at the very least, doesn't need the money right now) and it's senseless for LMM and IFC to just dilute themselves and the company further. This fits nicely with the AfrEximBank+ADB loans+ICL equity scenario.

Instead, what makes far more sense if AAA already has the financing basically all but formally signed, is for LMM to acquire more equity on the open market (if they want it.. maybe they are OK with a smaller equity position for portfolio diversity, risk management, whatever). Ditto for IFC.

It's conjecture at this point, but I think we'll see some large buy-siders taking on open-market shares in 2014 assuming debt financing is closed this year (and all signs point to yes). And I would not be surprised if LMM was one of those doing so...

PS - I'm still not happy with the warrants, but fine with the PP. Even if the best case scenario pans out and there is no more dilution, I still think they were too cheap. But I can't argue with market conditions - crappy timing for AAA to be at this point.