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Message: Belarus has withdrawn its Interpol request for Kerimov

This is probably one of the mutually agreed upon pre-requisite steps to reform the cartel or something like it. The civil cases you posted about would get settled out of court for some undisclosed but mutually agreed upon sum and then they could get to work restoring a cartel. I'm sure Uralkali has made its point - that as the undisputed lowest cost producer in the world it can screw everyone if it feels its getting screwed by its cartel partners (including Canpotex, which kept increasing its overall market share at the expense of Uralkali).

But I do believe Uralkali is also trying to protect its long-term interests on the supply side. I'd personally be surprised if BPC got back together anytime in the next couple of months. Jansen is under review again ("development review") but that could easily result in a project cancellation decision. And we're still in a low ebb for potash, which means the longer prices stay down here the harder it is for juniors to be viable and, in their eyes, hopefully cancelled. I too hope junior projects are cancelled. All of them... except one of course.

But I would bet a cartel entity reforms in the future. Ideally, it will happen within a couple of years so that Allana starts production right as prices start to rise and ICLs take out price increases dramatically.

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