Potash Corp provides analysis of potash market

Potash demand and spot market pricing strengthened throughout the first quarter. In North America, demand was robust as fertilizer distributors worked to position product ahead of the spring planting season. Even as shipments from domestic producers climbed 48 percent above those during the same period last year, ongoing rail constraints – precipitated by difficult winter conditions and a record grain harvest in Canada – kept dealer supplies tight. Although demand from Brazil and Southeast Asian countries strengthened, North American producers’ offshore shipments fell slightly below those of the same period last year as logistical challenges constrained their abilities to satisfy all demands for product. Offshore sales were further impacted by delayed supply contracts with Chinese and Indian buyers relative to 2013. Amidst strengthening market fundamentals, potash prices in all spot markets increased from the beginning of 2014 – most notably for granular product – but remained well below those of the comparative period in 2013.

In nitrogen, first-quarter ammonia production in the US reached its highest level in more than a decade as additional capacity came online and producers responded to strong agricultural and industrial demand. While ammonia prices trailed the historically high levels of 2013 – a period characterized by especially strong demand and supply challenges in key producing regions – they moved up sharply as the quarter came to a close. Demand for urea was also robust ahead of the North American spring planting season. With imports lower than those of the previous year, North American supply tightened and urea prices strengthened over the course of the quarter, although key benchmarks remained below those of the same period in 2013.

Production and logistical challenges also impacted global phosphate markets. This was especially true in North America where a combination of supply disruptions and an improved demand environment caused prices for all phosphate fertilizer products to strengthen during the quarter. Despite this move upward, weak market fundamentals through the second half of 2013 kept pricing levels for the quarter below those of the comparative period last year.

Market Outlook

Recent potash contracts in China and India as well as a strong order book in key spot markets are expected to create an environment that should support robust shipment levels through at least the next two quarters. While we are beginning to see an improvement in rail deliveries help address the backlog of orders from the first quarter, significant product demands are expected to keep pressure on North American carriers. We continue to work closely with our transportation partners to minimize disruptions although these conditions are expected to result in ongoing tight global market fundamentals. For the full year, we maintain our view that global potash shipments could be in the range of 55-57 million tonnes.