Bonus shares were issued early because the condition for that bonus was met early? I don't think this necessarily indicates a buy out is coming.

I can't see a reason ICL would take out the project now if they didn't already (to take advantage of the low pricing). There is construction and market risk and they effectively have a 3 year option here. About the only reason I could see a take out sometime soon is if they thought someone else was moving in and a bidding war (if it were to happen) would likely be good for shareholders.