Sadly the ICL deal all but guarantees the most any of us can expect to see out of this is about $2 a share assuming Allana gets its full NPV, we see $425/ton potash prices and there is very little further equity dilution (doesn't seem likely).

I guess there's something to be said for the "potential" of SOP production and 2Mtpa or the possibility of higher potash prices, but given the supply situation I would not count on any of that and I think we'll be lucky if potash is $425/ton by the time the company is taken out.

Although I am super skeptical that ICL will take this project out shortly after financing, if they offered $1.50 per share at that time I would take it. That's about as good as I think anyone who holds to the end (eg another 2 years or longer) is likely to get and I'd rather deploy my capital tied up in Allana into other companies in my portfolio.