So let me get this straight. ERCOSPLAN does a feasibility study in 2012 and delivers it in Feb 2013. The FS says the CAPEX for the project is around $650 Mil. I would venture to say that ICL was talking to Allana about a partnership within a couple of months (probably by April 2013). I say this because it was widely reported in Aug 2013 that ICL was about to partner with Allana on the Dallol project. So going back to mid-spring 2013, ICL knows the numbers of the FS and still decides that they want to partner with Allana. So from the time they started talking to Allana (mid spring, for argument’s sake), ICL is doing their due diligence on the project and the CAPEX and the OPEX and all that stuff. So now the SP takes a dramatic plunge in Nov and Dec 2013, conveniently just as ICL is about to make an investment in Allana. How convenient that the SP just HAPPENS to hit all time lows. So ICL negotiate a price of 47 cents per share (at a GENEROUS 40% premium) and pick up 16% of Allana. The deal is announced in Feb 2014. The SP drifts lower and lower from the date of the announcement to today’s dismal 31 cents.

Now we find out that ICL is having doubts about the FS numbers in the first place. Really? So someone please tell me why they still did the partnership deal? Did they not crunch ANY of the numbers that ERCOSPLAN put out in the FS? Really? They had no clue? Really?

Now ICL comes out in August 2014 and says that the CAPEX numbers were way too optimistic. Wow, what a convenient way to keep the SP low. Saying now that they are not sure about the feasibility of the project. Really. What happened to the DD they did in spring and summer of last year? If what they say about the CAPEX is true, didn’t they realize this last summer?

And here’s the kicker: Now ICL wants to do another PEA on the possibility of producing 1 million tons of SOP. And who do they hire? That’s right, they hire ERCOSPLAN. The same folks who they are now saying did a lousy job of the first FS. So if ERCOSPLAN did such a lousy job on the FS, why in the world are they being hired to do another one?

Something is very fishy here about the way that ICL is handling all this. Looks to me like a setup for a cheap buy out. First they kept the price low in Nov-Dec last year to get their shares at 47 cents. Now they are making noise about the project feasibility in general to keep the SP down even more and to discourage institutional investment. But yet they still hire ERCOSPLAN for the SOP PEA. Weird to say the least.

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