Re: More notes on the meeting from the IHUB board....Justin
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 18, 2014 10:09AM
Focusing on the Dallol Potash Project in Ethiopia
Wounded, I know how you feel ... we are all in the same boat. I don't like making predictions about share price in general and much less about buy-out prices. Who knows what ICL will offer. But what matters is what Allana investors will ACCEPT. ICL currentlt own 16 % of Allana. They're not exactly in the driver's seat although they do have a hand on the steering wheel. If they exercise their warrants at ~58 cents, they will own ~36% of the company, still not enough to have outright control. But if they exercise their warrants, would the SP not rise to the 60 cent level? There are too many variables right now to speculate about buy out offers. What will happen to SP once financing is announced? How would a positive PEA affect share price? Hopefully both these events will give us a good bump, but in this crazy market, who knows how much that will be. Will ICL make a bid before financing or after? The bashers of course will say that ICL will get Allana for peanuts ... they are throwing around numbers like high teens or mid forties. They seem to think that if ICL makes a lowball offer, all Allana shareholders will just accept it. I beg to differ. LMM and IMF both have lots of shares that were bought at a much higher price. So have a lot of investors bought in at higher prices. Do they really think that we (investors) will just accept a crappy offer? I think not. Will Yara make an offer if ICL makes one? Yara wants the SOP, so maybe in spite of the MOP offtake agreement with ICL, they would still make an offer to buy the company so that the SOP is theirs. I really don't see any (serious) offer being made for under $1.50 per share. That's about $500 million for the comapany. Optimistically I would say $3.00 to maybe even $5.00 per share offer ... that could be considered "fair value". Remember there is a LOT of MOP and SOP in the ground at Dallol. Ideally of course Allana would go to production, we would see earnings (in a few years) and the share price would reflect a healthy P/E ratio.
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