Re: Will lower Oil prices hurt us?
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 12, 2008 04:37PM
high performance solar technology
A Bright Future Leveraged by High-Efficiency ARISE PV Cells
Thanks, Look forward to see your comments. I guess I was hoping to see more umph! in the stock price today given guestimates on revenues for the balance of the year....i.e. $42M to $48M. I guess that's going to be a function of waiting for 3rd quarter to see how cost of goods sold plays out in relation to higher volumes of production and higher revenues. One might expect that as volume of production increases we should see some positive net income in the 3rd quarter which might lay the ground work for a real good estimate on where the stock price should be if it trades 10 or 20 times earnings.
Not to be too simple, but if you took what they expect in gross revenues for the last half of this year and assumed we traded 10 times the gross, probably should see a market cap of about $800Million to $900Million. Puts us at $about $6.00 per share on the gross revenue end. So if profit margin is about 25%, we're about $1.50 per share based on shares outstanding. This is just simple math of course.
Perhaps there has already been discussion on this so I'm sorry if there was. Just getting into flow. You might be right about 2009 telling the real tale here and I think, that notwithstanding where oil prices go, solar, in general, should be taken seriously. Solar is far more useful on more fronts than oil. The price of oil, in the long term (high or low) should not really impact price of solar generation and revenues generated. They are almost two different things (taking out natureal gas of course). No one is going to use oil power large cities. I think we are done with that.