Canaccord Adams Report Text
posted on
Oct 14, 2007 03:53PM
The company whose shareholders were better than its management
Flash Update | 1
4 October 2007
Canaccord Adams is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Capital Inc. (CCI : TSX|AIM)
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this Investment Research accurately reflect the Investment Analyst’s personal,
independent and objective views about any and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers discussed herein. For important
information, please see the Important Disclosures section in the appendix of this document or visit
http://www.canaccordadams.com/resear... .
Aurelian Resources Inc.
ARU : TSX : C$8.05 SPECULATIVE BUY
Target: C$13.00
Wendell Zerb 1.604.643.7485
wendell.zerb@canaccordadams.com
Metals and Mining -- Exploration and Development
13.7 MILLION OUNCES AT FDN
Event
The company has released an initial mineral resource estimate on its 100%-owned Fruta
del Norte (FDN) Au epithermal gold project in southeast Ecuador. According to
independent consultants, Micon International, FDN is host to an Inferred Resource of 58.9
million tonnes grading 7.23 g/t Au, 11.8 g/t Ag which equates to about 13.7 million ounces
of Au, and 22.4 million ounces of Ag, making it one of the world’s largest epithermal gold
deposits .Initial metallurgical work conducted at FDN suggests recoveries of 85-95% using
a combination gravity, and carbon in-leach processing of a pre-oxidized flotation
concentrate.
Impact – Positive
FDN is clearly a world-class asset with the potential to be a high-margin gold operation.
The core of the FDN deposit centered at 3400N opens the potential for a phase 1 starter
zone that could produce what we believe is in excess of 700,000 oz of Au per year starting
in three to five years. Metallurgically, initial tests show high recoveries. The requirement to
pre-oxidize a flotation concentrate by using bio-oxidation or an Autoclave is a
complication, but surmountable with current technology. The political risks in Ecuador
remain high. New mining laws are scheduled to be drafted within the next eight months.
Valuation
At this time, we continue to apply an in-situ approach to our valuation of Aurelian. Based
on the new 13.7 million ounce Inferred Resource and applying a new in-situ value of
US$115/oz (was US$100/oz) derives a valuation of $1,730 million (using a 1.1x growth
multiple) or C$13.00/share (rounded), up from $1,466 million or C$11.00/share (using 1.2
growth multiple). We continue to rate the shares a SPECULATIVE BUY.
Flash Update | 2
4 October 2007
FDN PROJECT
Mineral resource and project overview
Aurelian Resources Inc. is a Toronto-based junior under the stewardship of Patrick
Anderson and is focused on developing the Condor Project in southeastern Ecuador which
100% is held, subject to a 1-2% NSR. The massive property holdings cover a region over 70
kilometres in length. In Q2/06, the company announced the discovery of Fruta del Norte
(FDN), a new high-grade, buried epithermal gold zone.
Today, the company released the initial NI43-101 mineral resource for FDN. According to
independent consultants, Micon International, FDN is host to an Inferred Resource of 58.9
million tonnes grading 7.23 g/t Au, 11.8 g/t Ag which equates to about 13.7 million ounces
of Au, and 22.4 million ounces of Ag. The estimate was based on 45,051 metres of drilling
(85 holes) over 1,300-metre strike length. Drilling concentrated on roughly east- west
fences on 100-metre spacings. Plans moving forward include additional infill to 50 metres,
and in specific locations down to 25 metres. Over the 1,300-metre strike (2600N to 3900N)
of the mineralization, the deposit is roughly tabular in nature, structurally bounded on its
east and west, and its upper vertical contact is limited to the stratigraphic top to the host
Misahualli Andesites. North of Section 3900N, the deposit appears to be structurally offset.
To the south, the deposit remains open but is clearly less developed at section 2600N.
Initial metallurgical work conducted at FDN suggests recoveries of 85-95% using a
combination gravity, and carbon in leach processing of a pre-oxidized flotation
concentrate. The requirement to pre-oxidize a flotation concentrate by using bio-oxidation
or an Autoclave is a complication, but surmountable with current technology. Higher
capital requirements and the importance of substantial power comes with these
metallurgical characteristics.
The company has divided the deposit into four separate blocks based on a combination of
location, grade, and metallurgical character. Initial mine planning using the current
information is leading towards a two-phase development plan. Phase 1 would incorporate
a production plan targeting the high-grade core of the deposit at 3,000-5,000 t/d starting
three to five years out. Grades of this phase 1 zone could average about 9.3 g/t Au but
initial years would exploit a significantly high-grade zone near section 3400N. Initial mine
planning for phase 1 assumes using long hole stope mining; further studies will review
lower-cost bulk mining of this zone. Assuming a 5,000 t/d throughput using 20 g/t Au
would produce about 750k oz Au per year. Phase 2 would involve exploitation of bulk
mineable but modestly lower-grade zones. We assume throughput would increase to at
least 10,000 t/d in total with phase 2 coming on-line; however, grades will also trail off and
overall production is not likely to significantly increase despite the higher mining rate.
Initial environmental studies and permitting application have been initiated. The first focus
is to drive an underground decline parallel to the mineralized body. Detailed underground
work would include, but not be limited to extracting bulk samples, diamond drilling
(exploration and delineation), and geotechnical studies.
Flash Update | 3
4 October 2007
Ecuador political situation
Earlier this week delegates associated with Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa won 79 of
130 seats (60%) for the national assembly, whose mandate will be to assist in drafting a
new constitution. This result should give Mr. Correa solid political control.
We believe the basis of Correa’s initiative is to dissolve the current congressional power
which he claims is the cause for instability and corruption in the country. Others suggest
Correa is aiming to amass more power along similar lines to Chavez in Venezuela.
It could take up to eight months to rewrite the constitution which would then need to be
ratified in a national referendum. In the short term, the completion of the election could
free up politicians’ time, and business decisions could move forward. Most important for
Aurelian, is the government plans to rewrite the mining law, schedule for completion in
H2/08. Past comments coming from several sources have been mixed; however, recent
comments from government representatives stated the goal is a balanced mining policy
that will ensure similar revenues from mining that are received by other countries.
Aurelian believes royalties in the new mining law will be in line with other South American
countries.
Valuation
At this time we continue to apply an in-situ approach to our valuation of Aurelian. Based
on the new 13.7 million ounce inferred resource and applying a new in-situ value of
US$115/oz (was US$100/oz) derives a valuation of $1,730 million (using a 1.1 growth
multiple) or C$13.00/share (rounded), up from $1,466 million or C$11.00/share. Our
preliminary DCF model, based on initial mine parameters outlined by Aurelian, validates
our in-situ methodology at this time. We expect to apply more detailed economic
parameters to a theoretical mine plan over the next three to six months as we eventually
transition into a DCF valuation methodology.
Canaccord Adams has developed an in-situ gold spreadsheet that covers 41 junior
companies and is employed weekly to calculate an average value, based on the market
capitalization of the companies included, per ounce of gold in a recognized NI 43-101
resource. The current average value is US$90.21/oz (up approximately US$14/oz from our
last update). We continue to maintain the view that despite the relatively early stage of
development on FDN, it does not represent an average prospect within the junior mining
sector. We believe the FDN prospect has the potential to develop into a large high-margin
mining operation and, as such, we feel justified in applying a premium in-situ valuation to
the FDN resources of US$115/oz.
To account for what we view is excellent exploration potential, which we believe remains
both at the FDN zone and on additional targets within the Condor Project, we have chosen
to apply a 1.1 growth multiple to our in-situ valuation. We also recognize there is
additional risk associated with investments in Ecuador especially during this period of
constitutional and mining law changes (due out by H2/08). At this time, however, we have
not applied an additional risk discount.
Transfer of coverage
This research note constitutes the transferring of research coverage of Aurelian Resources
from Graeme Currie to Wendell Zerb. The catalyst for this change in coverage is Graeme
Currie’s transition out of Research and his previous role as Mining Analyst.
Flash Update | 4
4 October 2007
Investment risks
The typical risks associated with any mineral investment include commodity and exchange
rate fluctuation risks, geopolitical risk, permitting and technical (development/operating)
risks. The commercialization risks associated with mineral exploration and development
are high, thus, investment in the shares of Aurelian Resources are for risk accounts.
Flash Update | 5
4 October 2007
APPENDIX: IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Analyst Certification: Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Adams whose name appears on the front page of this investment
research hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this investment research
accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all of the
designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring analyst’s coverage
universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the investment
research.
Site Visit: An analyst has visited the principle property. Partial payment or reimbursement was received from the issuer
for the related travel costs.
Price Chart:*
* Price charts assume event 1 indicates initiation of coverage or the beginning of the measurement period.
Distribution of Ratings:
Global Stock Ratings
(as of 31 August 2007)
Coverage Universe IB Clients
Rating # % %
Buy 313 56.6% 43.1%
Speculative Buy 72 13.0% 72.2%
Hold 146 26.4% 32.9%
Sell 22 4.0% 9.1%
553 100.0%
Canaccord Ratings
System:
BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.
HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.
SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Canaccord Adams does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.
“Risk-adjusted return” refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the
designated investment or the relevant issuer.
Risk Qualifier: SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental
criteria. Investments in the stock may result in material loss.
Canaccord Adams Research Disclosures as of 4 October 2007
Company Disclosure
Aurelian Resources Inc. 1A, 2, 5, 7
Flash Update | 6
4 October 2007
1 The relevant issuer currently is, or in the past 12 months was, a client of Canaccord Adams or its affiliated
companies. During this period, Canaccord Adams or its affiliated companies provided the following services
to the relevant issuer:
A. investment banking services.
B. non-investment banking securities-related services.
C. non-securities related services.
2 In the past 12 months, Canaccord Adams or its affiliated companies have received compensation for
Corporate Finance/Investment Banking services from the relevant issuer.
3 In the past 12 months, Canaccord Adams or any of its affiliated companies have been lead manager, co-lead
manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities of the relevant issuer or any publicly disclosed offer
of securities of the relevant issuer or in any related derivatives.
4 Canaccord Adams acts as corporate broker for the relevant issuer and/or Canaccord Adams or any of its
affiliated companies may have an agreement with the relevant issuer relating to the provision of Corporate
Finance/Investment Banking services.
5 Canaccord Adams or any of its affiliated companies is a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of
the relevant issuer or in any related derivatives.
6 In the past 12 months, Canaccord Adams, its partners, affiliated companies, officers or directors, or any
authoring analyst involved in the preparation of this investment research has provided services to the
relevant issuer for remuneration, other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services.
7 Canaccord Adams intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for Corporate Finance/Investment
Banking services from the relevant issuer in the next six months.
8 The authoring analyst, a member of the authoring analyst’s household, or any individual directly involved in
the preparation of this investment research, has a long position in the shares or derivatives, or has any other
financial interest in the relevant issuer, the value of which increases as the value of the underlying equity
increases.
9 The authoring analyst, a member of the authoring analyst’s household, or any individual directly involved in
the preparation of this investment research, has a short position in the shares or derivatives, or has any
other financial interest in the relevant issuer, the value of which increases as the value of the underlying
equity decreases.
10 Those persons identified as the author(s) of this investment research, or any individual involved in the
preparation of this investment research, have purchased/received shares in the relevant issuer prior to a
public offering of those shares, and such person’s name and details are disclosed above.
11 A partner, director, officer, employee or agent of Canaccord Adams and its affiliated companies, or a member
of his/her household, is an officer, or director, or serves as an advisor or board member of the relevant issuer
and/or one of its subsidiaries, and such person’s name is disclosed above.
12 As of the month end immediately preceding the date of publication of this investment research, or the prior
month end if publication is within 10 days following a month end, Canaccord Adams or its affiliate
companies, in the aggregate, beneficially owned 1% or more of any class of the total issued share capital or
other common equity securities of the relevant issuer or held any other financial interests in the relevant
issuer which are significant in relation to the investment research (as disclosed above).
13 As of the month end immediately preceding the date of publication of this investment research, or the prior
month end if publication is within 10 days following a month end, the relevant issuer owned 1% or more of
any class of the total issued share capital in Canaccord Adams or any of its affiliated companies.
14 Other specific disclosures as described above.
Canaccord Adams is the business name used by certain subsidiaries of Canaccord Capital Inc., including
Canaccord Adams Inc., Canaccord Adams Limited, and Canaccord Adams, a division of Canaccord Capital
Corporation. Clients of Canaccord Adams, in the past 12 months, may have been clients of Canaccord Capital
Corporation, Canaccord Capital (Europe) Limited, Canaccord Capital Corporation USA Inc., and/or Adams
Harkness Financial Group Ltd.
The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this investment research are employed by
Canaccord Adams, a securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto,
Montreal (all Canada), Boston, New York, San Francisco (all US) and London (UK).
In the event that this is compendium investment research (covering six or more relevant issuers), Canaccord
Adams and its affiliated companies may choose to provide specific disclosures of the subject companies by
reference, as well as its policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of investment research. To
access this material or for more information, please send a request to Canaccord Adams Research, Attn:
Disclosures, P.O. Box 10337 Pacific Centre, 2200-609 Granville Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2 or
disclosures@canaccordadams.com.
The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this investment research have received (or
Flash Update | 7
4 October 2007
will receive) compensation based upon (among other factors) the Corporate Finance/Investment Banking
revenues and general profits of Canaccord Adams. However, such authoring analysts have not received, and
will not receive, compensation that is directly based upon or linked to one or more specific Corporate
Finance/Investment Banking activities, or to recommendations contained in the investment research.
Canaccord Adams and its affiliated companies may have a Corporate Finance/Investment Banking or other
relationship with the company that is the subject of this investment research and may trade in any of the
designated investments mentioned herein either for their own account or the accounts of their customers, in
good faith or in the normal course of market making. Accordingly, Canaccord Adams or their affiliated
companies, principals or employees (other than the authoring analyst(s) who prepared this investment
research) may at any time have a long or short position in any such designated investments, Related
designated investments or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon.
Some regulators require that a firm must establish, implement and make available a policy for managing
conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication or distribution of investment research. This investment
research has been prepared in accordance with Canaccord Adams’ policy on managing conflicts of interest,
and information barriers or firewalls have been used where appropriate. Canaccord Adams’ policy is
available upon request.
The information contained in this investment research has been compiled by Canaccord Adams from sources
believed to be reliable, but (with the exception of the information about Canaccord Adams) no representation
or warranty, express or implied, is made by Canaccord Adams, its affiliated companies or any other person
as to its fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness. Canaccord Adams has not independently verified
the facts, assumptions, and estimates contained herein. All estimates, opinions and other information
contained in this investment research constitute Canaccord Adams’ judgement as of the date of this
investment research, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal
responsibility or liability.
Canaccord Adams salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market
commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are
contrary to the opinions expressed in this investment research. Canaccord Adams’ affiliates, proprietary
trading desk, and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the
recommendations or views expressed in this investment research.
This investment research is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or
solicitation to buy or sell any designated investments discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or
solicitation would be prohibited. As a result, the designated investments discussed in this investment
research may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This investment research is not, and under no
circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as a securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction
by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or
dealer in that jurisdiction. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and does not have
regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors
should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances before making an investment decision. To
the fullest extent permitted by law, none of Canaccord Adams, its affiliated companies or any other person
accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from or relating to any use of the
information contained in this investment research.
For Canadian Residents: This investment research has been approved by Canaccord Adams, a division of Canaccord Capital
Corporation, which accepts responsibility for this investment research and its dissemination in Canada.
Canadian clients wishing to effect transactions in any Designated Investment discussed should do so through
a qualified salesperson of Canaccord Adams, a division of Canaccord Capital Corporation in their particular
jurisdiction.
For United Kingdom
Residents:
This investment research complies with the Financial Services Authority's Conduct of Business Sourcebook
and is approved by Canaccord Adams Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services
Authority, in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom. This material is not for distribution in
the United Kingdom to private customers, as defined under the rules of the Financial Services Authority.
Canaccord Adams Limited accepts responsibility for this investment research and its dissemination in the
United Kingdom. The information contained in this investment research is only intended for distribution in
the UK to persons who qualify as intermediate customers or market counterparties, as defined under the
rules of the Financial Services Authority.
For United States
Residents:
Canaccord Adams Inc., a US registered broker-dealer, accepts responsibility for this Investment Research and
its dissemination in the United States. This Investment Research is intended for distribution in the United
States only to certain US institutional investors. US clients wishing to effect transactions in any Designated
Investment discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of Canaccord Adams Inc.
For European Residents: If this Investment Research is intended for disclosure in any jurisdiction other than the United Kingdom, the
US or Canada, then the relevant rules and regulatory requirements of that jurisdiction will apply.
Flash Update | 8
4 October 2007
Additional information is available on request.
Copyright © Canaccord Adams, a division of Canaccord Capital Corporation 2007. – Member IDA/CIPF
Copyright © Canaccord Adams Limited 2007. – Member LSE, regulated and authorized by the Financial
Services Authority.
Copyright © Canaccord Adams Inc. 2007. – Member FINRA/SIPC
All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under
copyright to Canaccord Adams, a division of Canaccord Capital Corporation, Canaccord Adams Limited, and
Canaccord Adams Inc. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or
transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of the entities
listed above.
safeharbour