Great post today and interesting poll questions. Love your summary of the facts.

My take on this is that I believe that the end game is nearer than most think. Today, companies don't sit around and let a competitor grow - IBM learned this lesson with Intel and Microsoft. At today's price, ARU is a mere bite for one of the majors.

Newmont has come into Ecuador and chosen not to do it through ARU. However, they have signalled that Ecuador is "safe" to do business in. The other majors won't wait for a new mining act - only an indicated direction from the government and you can bet that most of them have already been given some private info behind closed doors and will want to react soon.

I cannot see potential suitors wanting to wait for Papaya results and other drill results - the cost of poker will only go up after they come out.

ARU might be worth $6Billion longer term, but why pay $6B when you can get it for $2B today with country-risk that you find acceptable. And why buy just FDN when you can get all of ARU for a few pennies more. After all, one of those other 30 targets must hold something valuable.

The buyout is coming and coming soon. Based on good info, I believe that Barrick will fire the opening salvo by offering between $13.50 and $13.75. This offer should be coming before the end of November, with next Feb. as the outside target.

While a bidding war may break out, (don't overlook some of the non-North American firms - someone from South Africa, Russia, China might jump into a bidding war), I believe that the final takeout price will be between $14.50 and $14.75.

Sorry folks, as a major long on this stock, I'd love to see it stay around longer because I truly believe that the long term potential is huge, but the majors just cannot afford to let that happen.

Just one man's opinion, but it looks like $14.75 is the upside limit on this stock, unless they can somehow ward off this takeover battle.