Re: An potential benchmark for an ARU offer.
posted on
Nov 03, 2007 12:22AM
The company whose shareholders were better than its management
Ghost...
First I will say that I personally think ARU should sell off the FDN property and spin the rest into a separate company ....but I also realize that as the size of the FDN deposit grows I can see that ARU management might consider developing the project themselves but only if they can not get a satisfactory price for the FDN deposit...
We all have different invesment goals depending on our own personal financial status, our age and what we need/ desire for our family and loved ones. i am in my twilight years and a ten year development is not what I desire for myself and hope to have the money I have invested in ARU turned over several times in the next ten year period...however...ARU just might be where that money gives me the best return in the next ten years...at this point I don't know.
Getting tied into real long term stock investments like we did in the 1950's and 1960's is becoming a thing of the past ....electronic trading is a whole new world and all of us see everyday what day traders and manipulators do to stock prices. Few people today even get there stock certificates as most are held with brokerage firms in street name so they can be traded quickly.....remember Enron...a lot of old timers have a lot of pretty stock certificates worth nothing...
The FDN deposit is getting bigger as each day goes by. Not very many companies can buy ARU and pay for it without major dilution of their own shares. We all know that any good offer for ARU will be for stock shares in the purchaser and possibly some cash. If Barrick or Newmont bought ARU most of us would probably dump our newco shares on the open market...take our cash and run. How many of you want ABX shares?
I learned long ago not to fall in love with stocks but ARU has a great story behind it and is the kind of a stock that I would not mind holding for time ( the good lord willing). As an old codger everyday I get to fiddle with my ARU stock is a blessing. Back to the point..
ARU does not want a JV partner that will take control of the deposit...this has been presented to me several times by management ...the reason...they don't need one!! The resource is so good that it can be entirely financed internally if ARU wants to develop it.....so Do not look for a JV Partner...
That means the most likely will be to sell off FDN....but only if the price is right....as more of the big boys like Barrick and Newmont start to pay big bucks for second class resources like Cero Casale and Miramar then I become more optimistic that They will pay the big bucks for the FDN deposit. Barrick has till the 13th of this month to do something with Novagold on the Donlin property so until that is settled I expect nothing from them. Newmont has to take care of getting rid of their royalty business so nothing will come from them for awhile. Golgcorp could be the sleeper and we all know the Telfer is a wheeler dealer from the word go...look at his actions with Goldcorp, Silver Wheaton, Glamis, Virginia...etc.