LONG Response to Rich9's question on Is There Likely More At FDN
posted on
Nov 17, 2007 02:17PM
The company whose shareholders were better than its management
In response to Rich9's questions:
.... "Question: What are the odds of there being even millions more of ounces of gold underneath what they have already discovered at FDN?
I've heard, for example, that Virginia Gold's deposit, which is estimated at 4 million ounces presently, may in fact have another 6 to 8 million ounces much deeper under the known deposit.
Also, what's your take on the copper deposit deep down under FDN?"
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When you get right down to it your questions are the real issue surrounding ARU value and why some advocate spinning off FDN while other’s advocate holding on to everything until we see what we have and of course those that just want to sell and retire to the Caribbean at age 18.
I give you a HUNDRED PERCENT GUARENTEE that there are millions of more ounces of gold at ARU then currently published. They are there already but are not officially counted in the resource currently published due to the spacing between some of the drill holes. Hence infill drilling adds to resources #.
We also know that the deposit is open at depth so deeper drilling will add tonnage. The problem is we are drilling 800 meter long holes to depths of over 500 meter below surface. Such drilling becomes progressively more expensive per meter but also much slower and less controlled (the holes don’t exactly end up where you want them to). So the purpose of most of the deep drilling is to show that there is mineralization at depth but not to add tonnes. One of the key purposes of the proposed incline/adit will be to develop deep drilling stations for underground drilling. Underground drilling is much cheaper and faster. For sure they will add millions more at depth.
To the NORTH the deposit is truncated by a post mineralization NW trending fault. On line 3800N life is great, and then nothing. There is no reason to believe that the mineralization hasn’t been offset. At this point no one knows how much if any mineralization there is beyond line 3800N. But in my experience you don’t go from intensely altered host rock with multiple phases of stock work veins to nothing in 50 metres unless the fault was the epithermal conduit. But then we would see intense silicification and mineralization in the fault and I understand there isn’t. So there is lots of potential for ounces to the north. Probably more so then the ‘western fault extension” potential. I think they have been quite on the North extension because they haven’t been able to unravel the Western extension.
ARU believes the FDN deposit has been offset by the main North trending fault. Similar reasoning to northern continuation of the deposit. Mineralization abuts to the East edge of the North trending western fault. How much if any of the deposit is sheared off and displaced is pure conjecture. We can hope and fantasize about hundreds of metres of thickness but at this point it’s a guess. One that may add 10’s of millions of ounces or nothing. Assuming they can find it anytime soon.
So all totaled there is the potential for millions and millions of more ounces at FDN alone. It depends on how things play out in the field.
As to your question about deep seated porphyries: it’s probable.
The thing that makes the ARU holding attractive (other than they haven’t been explored before) is that the size of the epithermal alteration and the extent and duration of tectonic activity. To have gotten the volume of hydrothermal fluid that created FDN you would need massive sources of heat that set up the convection cycle that circulated the mineral bearing fluids to the surface. The source of the heat is magma plumes thrown off of shallow subduction zones. Along the Pacific side the ocean bed gets subducted/forced under the continental crust and plunges to depths where it eventually melts and rises to the surface as magma ‘bubble’/plumes (like a lava lamp). If the zone is to steep the plumes never get anywhere near the surface before they cool and if it’s to shallow they erupt at the surface (hence the volcanic activity near Quito). If everything is right they rise to the near surface and then get viscous enough they can’t rise any further. If the geochemistry of the magma and the host rock is right you get a mineralized porphyry with Cu-Au along the cap of the plume. As more insoluble elements drop out their remains lots of siliceous fluids that can maintained dissolved Au, Ag, Fe, S and a host of other elements. These fluids continue to rise to the surface along whatever path they can until the temperature, pressure and geochemistry (ph, po2, fo2, salinity, etc) change enough that it creates a situation where the minerals become insoluble and precipitate out as a mineral deposit.
So yes there is probably porphyry somewhere under/around FDN. Given the extent of mineral occurrences throughout the area and the multiple pulse of mineralization at FDN it is safe to assume that there are multiple porphyries out there that generated the multiple phases of mineralization. How deep and how big they are is anyone’s guess but CTQ’s Mirador porphyry points to them being big.
Fearless’s discussion about pull apart basins outlines that we have a long zone that was subjected to extensive tectonic activity that create fractures in the earth’s crust that could permit fluid to get to the surface (or near). When you combine heat sources, with mineral sources and a means of getting to the surface you have a great place to hunt for elephant size deposits. We have all three conditions and one world class deposit and the guys at ARU are now hunting regional targets so let’s hope they get another one (or two or three).
Remember everything mention above is from a guy that owns a pile of ARU stock and believes in the potential. Enough that I have been buying heavily the past couple of day. It’s a well educated guess but could turn out to be completely wrong. So don’t sell your house to invest in ARU based on my optimistic view. I will however buy you lunch if we don’t hit 20 million ounces by this time next year.