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Message: The Million Man March

Your comparison is a little bit different than just being "provocative".... In Ireland its a religious war that has that country in turmoil.... In Ecuador its a "class struggle" between a old "ruling elite" which is about 5% of the population, all of them being the privileged wealthy, and the rest of the poor population being comprised of native Indian tribes.

 *** I used the Belfast image simply as a metaphor for the degree of provocation.  While there may indeed be class struggle, as Marx put it, the march itself wasn't about that.  The issue at hand is a power struggle between the mayor of Guyaquil and the central government over questions of taxation and division of power between state and municipal govts.  Guyaquil is also the center of opposition, which has strong support from the middle class, who feel disenfranchised by all the recent changes.

*** A lot of people who took part in that demonstration weren't even from Guyaquil - they were bused in from outside.   I used the Million Man March anaolgy because, much like that event, the numbers were wildy exagerated.  Most reasonable estimates put the crowd somewhere around 40,000 - not the 100,000 that AP claimed.

*** The demographics of Ecuador are a bit more diverse than you suggest Here's the breakdown: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ecuador 

 In Ecuador, its been like Russia was during the Czar's reign....only the few at the top of the "pyramid" get to live life free of cares, like providing food for your family, which is what the rest of Ecuador is struggling with on a day to day basis. The poor in third world countries are hardly better off than "slaves" to the rich elite who rule through controlling the military (usually with the payments of gold, because soldiers know that these empires fall apart quickly) that "keep the masses at a safe distance"!

 ***I don't think the situation in Ecuador is nearly as bad as all that.  True, it's a poor country, but it has many things going for it, such as oil, fertile land, good fishing grounds, ample water, and a couple of modern cities with an educated middle class.  There's no legacy of civil war like in Nicaragua or El Salvador, no guerrila groups like in Colombia, Peru and Guatemala, no history of bloody repression like in Argentina or Chile.  Even Mexico has had more political turmoil in recent years.  Not to put to kind a face on it, but the ruling elite of Ecuador are a fairly passive bunch, which is probably why they were swept aside so easily.

Rome, Russia, The Shah of Iran, Saddam....all of them fell because of lack of support at the bottom of the social pyramid...Correa is not a "communist" in the classical style of Marx, but he is definitely thinking of trying to lift the main population of Ecuador out of deep poverty in into a life with basic needs at least available to them for the first time in their history since the conquistadors came and "raped " their culture and natural resources....

 *** You won't find many people in present day Latin America who have an axe to grind with the conquistadors.  Frankly, if you lived next door to the Aztecas you welcomed the arrival of Cortez - at least at first.  You'll find a lot of dyed-in-the-wool marxists still around, but you'll find that a majority of people consider them a joke, and not to be trusted.  Socialism, as currently practiced in Venezuela, has failed so many times in Latin America that the majority of people are fed up hearing about it and cast their vote for guys like Correa as a form of protest, not out of any sense of conviction.

*** The basic problem of distribution of wealth in these nations is that you first have to have it before you can distribute it.  These are agrarian societies for the most part.  The remainder of their economies are natural resources, which until recently were in a long bear market.  Heavy industry and manufacturing are the exception, thus skilled jobs are hard to come by.  That's starting to change now, but it needs room to grow.  If you rake off the lion's share for the state, then redistribute it via govt. handouts, you just perpetuate a sense of dependency when what you really need is opportunity.

Correa is not a "fool"...he knows that he needs the mining industry to become his main base of revenues in the future, if he wants his plans of social reforms to come to "flower"....right now the negotiations with ARU's management is crucial to his plans, because they are the first to have to go through this process...Correa needs this one to go smoothly to make it look like the system will work!

*** Yes, appearances are very important,  but results speak louder than words.  I have confidence that the people around Correa understand this.  I'm not so sure about the man himself though.  No doubt he's sincere, but the way he's concentrating executive power and moving against the business class makes me wonder if he really grasps what's at stake here.  Ecuador isn't going to get off the ground without their participation.  If you don't include them in the process you end up like Venezuela.  I don't think that's in their future, but they really need to soften their approach or it will be. 

*** Their biggest obstacle right now seems to be inexperience.   Instead of making all these radical changes, I would have moved more slowly and stressed inclusion and reconciliation.  There's only a handful of people who can really make trouble, and they've mostly been declawed.  Time to put aside the polemics, win over the fence sitters, and foster a spirit of national enterprise which includes everyone.

ebear
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