As most of you know, I've been at this game for a long time. I've seen a lot of crazy things over the years but to be honest nothing quite like this. Having had focused my attention on Canada and the US probably didn't prepare me for what we're into here. That said, a Noboa win that faithful November day in 2006, I'm sure we would all be telling our friends how we "owned" Aurelian not how we "own" it today. As they say, sh_t happens, deal with it, and that's exactly what we've done, we've dealt with it.

I may not know Latin American politics but one thing I do know is prospectors. No matter where they're searching they're all cut from the same mold to a certain extent. Everyone reading this I would expect experienced some sort of sensation when they first learned the Aurelian story and it probably grew as they realized its potential. Take what you felt and throw on a huge multiple for what it must have been like for Patrick Anderson and the team.

You can take the 1000's of jr exploation companies and divide them into two groups: promotional and true explorers. Probably 1 in 500 actually finds something economical, and yes the promotional ones play the game and return enough cash to keep the Howe St. crowd eating. The true prospectors put it all on the line, often going well into debt while pursuing their dream of the next big discovery.

I can only imagine how Patrick and the team felt when they first saw the core from hole 51's magnificant 237 m's of mineralization which became the signature alterations of what we now call FDN. That hole returned 4.14 grams, not a company maker, but a possibilty. Their dreams were realized a few week later when drilling a 100m to the north and a little to the west on what we now refer to as line 3400. The core they saw later retuned 189m of 24grams AU. On that day, it was no longer a matter of "if" it was now just "how much".

I have posted time and time again how surprised I was at how Patrick had not sold a single share since the dicovery was made( go back to SH and check the "DD" posts by Buckshot25). That makes sense to me now. He knew he had it made, he is spending 90% of his time in the jungle, the remainder in paid for hotels during dog and pony shows so he had no real reason to take a profit. He had no need for money, so like Warren Buffet, he kept his money in what he knew. Just work his ass off to increase shareholder value and then eventually retire or whatever.

I have no doubt that Patrick was badgered by his financial advisors. Think about it, the advisor gets 1% commisssion on transactions. What the hell good is it for him to have a client sitting on $30+million in shares doing nothing? PLUS, no matter how over weight we let ourselves get, there is something to be said for a little thing called diversification and there isn't an Investment Advisor is the world that wouldn't preech it.

But it wasn't the words of an Invesmtent Advisor that got Patrick and the gang to lighten up. It wasn't the merits of the project. It wasn't some round about grease job to Ecudorian officials or some exchange for a rec from a bank desk as some have insinuated here. I'll never be able to prove it, but I think without one doubt that this is how it all went down.

I'm sorry joltin, I know you know your stuff but there is no way a bank like CIBC could not place $6m in stock without affecting the share price. This was a rushed sale, I'd bet my life on it. It was either initiated that day or the the day before max.

Something therefore had to have happened that put the fear of god into Patrick and later others on the board. I can't be sure but my guess is that it started Friday Jan 25th. That was the day it was announced that 500+ concessions were anulled in Ecuador. The stock as you will recall opened and ran to $8.99 only to later fall in the confusion to a low of $7.76. Even though that was cleared up, we later found out that two of the four proposals being put forth by the Constituent Assembly call for the immediate revocation OF ALL mining concessions in Ecuador.

I don't think any of us can claim to be Ecuadorian political students. I highly doubt that a group of Canadian geologists even though they've lived down there for five years could claim to know much more than us. How much swey does this Green movement have? By all accounts it's small and we know Corea is firmly on our side.

Bman caught something very important here from the last NR ""We believe that President Correa's strong support for responsible mining will carry the day." I would not underestimate the significance of this statement. This is a true glimpse into their present mindset. An acknowledgement that there is a faction in the govt that want no mining.

But what if Correa is in a dead heat on an issue more important to him, one that he would require the support of his buddy Acosta and his semi retarded green brigade? Would he sell us out in the pursuit of something else? Do any of us know without a single doubt that he wouldn't?

This my friends is what Patrick and the team faced in my opinion. They know that the mining ministry is with them. They know that the president is with them. They know that negotiations are going well. They know that they are sitting on the worlds greatest undeveloped gold deposit. BUT now they are faced with a new mining law. Regardless of how small the voices behind them, two of the four proposals call for Aurelian and all foreign mining companies to get the all out boot from Ecuador.

This is gut check time. Put whatever value you thing a share should be worth, $20,$25,$30 etc and say the proability is "x" that you get it. Say it's "y" that you will get some reduced number due to some bs tax regime being implemented. For the first time they were forced to put probablity "z" for an outcome of zero into the equation. No matter how small that probability is (I'd say somewhere between 1 and 3%) it has to be on the table when two of four propositions lead to it. My own 1 to 3% may be low, I mean what kind of political climate would there have to be to have Correa come out this week and call these proposals names as he did? He must have thought there was a reasonable threat to his view for him to even address these rediculous proposals.

The point is you have Patrick Anderson holding 4million shares. He thinks there worth $25 ea lets say. So if he waits he's got a $100million coming to him. For almost two years he sits back and lets this thing play out contently awaiting his pay day. All of the sudden, he sees this latest development from the Constituent Assembly and the possibility, no matter how small, enters the equation of a zero outcome for him. He has to make the prudent move. He has to take some money off the table. So he sells $6 million worth. He still has 3.2 million shares. If he gets his $25, that'sanother $80million for a total of $86million. There isn't much difference between $100million (all 4million shs at $25) and $86million when you think about it. There is a big difference between $100m and zero though. How the hell would you ever get out of bed if you didn't at least take enough off the table to live comfortably for the rest of your life.

The same goes for Hamilton. He sold 250k shs out of 650 shs in total. Work the math out like above- it's prudent. The globe article was pure bs, you have option remaining to buy 400k shs at 18cents and you say that he has a balance of zero? Quite the oversight on the authors part and we should definately write them for a retraction.

Keith Barron isn't even worth addressing as he still holds just over 15million shares.

In conclusion, I'm convinced that these sells had nothing to do with current negotiations. They were a prudent move in reaction to word from the Constituent Assembly that two of the four proposals being put to a vote call for the revocation of all foreign mining concessions. These proposals are being put forth by very small radical elements within the govt and are not supported by the the President. If you look through the reports chronologically you can even see that their biggest proponent Acosta, has backed down since the news of these proposals broke, no doubt at the urging by his best friend the President Correa.

To me drawing anything more out of this is just spinning your wheels in the snow. I'm moving forward, eye is on the prize, stability agreement due end of March, just let me know when we have an acceptable bid on the table.

Regards,

Buck