Re: Fearless
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 24, 2008 05:59PM
The company whose shareholders were better than its management
Safe,
in order to answer your questions as accurately as possible with the information at hand I decided to look at the latest ARU cross sections. I must admit that I have not visited the ARU site in many months.
The information long ago in my mind convinced me with regards to the potential of FDN and therefore I did not look at any of the new cross sections. I like ARU management believed that the main feader pipe or core of FDN had just been displaced to either the south or north along the Las Penas fault. They were proceeding with a plan along the same lines as I would have and thus I left it at that.
Therefore once I started to look at the cross sections to answer your questions I was quite surprised at what I found. If someone had mentioned to me before this the possibility that the undiscovered portion of the deposit had actually subsided or fallen aprox 150 - 200 meters I would have been very dubious of their claim to say the least. It just goes to show that there is very little ordinary about this deposit and that is what makes it extraordinary.
From the relative positioning of the sinter cap, overlying conglomerate and the host Andesite rock, there differentials in elevations as outlined from further diamond drilling, it is quite appearent that this is actually just what has occured. It appears that the unlocated part of FDN has actually fallen approx 150 - 200 meters and that there scissor hole CP 07 162 must have come close to hitting the top of the missing ore body. I believe it was this scissor hole that they reported that near the end of the hole they encountered Au indicator minerals and were very encouraged by the findings.
Safe in regards to the secound part of your question, no I do not believe it is possible that FDN extends over to the the EML property. If it did, it would be at such a depth to make the matter not really important. Sorry to those EML holders who are hoping this is the case. That is not to say that there could not be a deposit on their property. It just would not be the FDN deposit.
To ebear who asked if the deposit occured in a single event or multiple events. It was reported by ARU that the ore body was deposited by at least 2 -3 different hydrothermal events. This explains its vast size.
To longforcash who I thank for his compliment, actually geology is not my thing, it is just something I picked up along the way in my 20 year mining career having worked at 13 different mines in various parts of the world. Mine construction, underground developement and personnel training is actually my thing. Not to mention I have had more than a little success as an investor over the years.
I have worked at 4 different gold mines in my career and to date there is not one of them that is not below 4000 feet today and still going deeper. The deepest gold mine I worked in was 7800 ft and the ore still extended to depth. All these mines the ore came close to the surface and so these are actual depths the gold bearing veins extend to.
Knowing this and the fact that FDN also at one time extended to surface, the sandstone and conglomerate rock cover having been formed post mineralization for some of the hydrothermal events. One can start to make estimates on the actual size of the deposit.
I believe that we are actually close to 18,000,000 ounces by now because of the extension to the deposit since the last estimate and because they did not count many of the intersepts on the smaller outlying veins. These ounces occure over a vertical depth of aprox 250 meters to date. There is no doubt in my mind that the deposit does extend to depth. If we take this assumption as a given and extrapolate for given depths we can start to get some possible totals as to an actual final ounce count.
For instance it is known from other shallow epithermal deposits that the vertical depth of the deposit can extend up to 1000 meters. Thus if we take the fact that only 250 meters of depth has been outlined at FDN containing 18,000,000 ounce then:
250m - 18,000,000 ounces
500m - 36,000,000 ounces
750m - 54,000,000 ounces
1000m - 72,000,000 ounces.
Due to the very size of the deposit if one assumes that FDN stays within the norms of shallow epithermal deposits then it would most likely fall between the 750m and 1000 meter depth at least.
However there are also a class of epithermal deposit known as deep epithermal deposits. These are deposits that do not make it near the surface and thus form at some depth under isothermal conditions. Meaning that a rapid temperature change was not the determing factor in the percipitation of gold out of solution but rather the chemical interaction of the solution with the surrounding host rock was the determining factor. It was reported that a number of different hydrothermal events occured in the forming of FDN and it is very possible that at least one of these events occured after the sandstone and conglomerate cover had formed over FDN, thus entombing FDN and creating the conditions for a deep epithermal deposit to form. These deep epithermal deposits can vertically extend for thousands of meters.
I will let you continue the extrapolation of ounces over thousands of meters. I beleive that what we have hit to date is just the tip of the iceberg and that is why CIBC called it the best discovery in 100 years. Even if we just assume it remains a shallow deposit I concervatively estimate it at 50,000,000 + ounces. That is why I have a 50+ dollar per share price on a possible take over. If FDN is to be taken over, many investors here will be shocked at the final price.
In my opinion FDN will be bought out alone because I do not see how any major could let this opportunity slip by. An offer to good to pass up will be made by someone. It will be for FDN alone because how do you value the rest of ARU's property and how would anybody actually be able to afford what I consider the best unexplored land package in the world.
If FDN is to be sold I would expect an offer to have to come sometime this year. If an offer does not come this year then I expect ARU to go it alone because why bother selling it after you have done most of the work to bring it into production.
The logical course of action in my opinion would be for a major to aquire FDN and for ARU to sell it for a very attractive price. This would leave ARU fully financed to explore the rest of there consessions and the founders very wealthy.
To explorationists it is the thrill of the hunt and exploring, not the tedious day to day grind of operating a mining company. This senario to me makes perfect sense on all levels and that is why I am in agreement with Safe on this.
F.F.