"Safe, what is your honest most unbiased opinion of what is going to happen here?

Given that Ecuador changes their laws like we change underwear I'd like to think there is hope.

Do you think that high pressure from Aurelian, DMM and other miners, pressure from the international community at large, pressure from various protests, pressure from pro-mining factions in Ecuador etc. will convince/force the govt. to right this grievous wrong?"

I hesitate to post my opinion

When times are good you're the cheerleader

When times are tough you're the piñata.

I just weigh the facts as I see them. Correa is pro mining. He knows he needs income from oil and mining to take this country to the next level.

There's obviously a vacuum between him and Acosta, probably less of a power struggle than two different opinions, opposite ends of the spectrum. In order for the vote to have been 95 to 1 there must have been a deal cut. To bring the assembly together. Thursday night changes were made to article 8 to leave certain loopholes. While El Commercio today defined that loophole to include various local mines, I think in short order we will see it will also include our ARU and others. Ecuador chose 4 companies to negotiate with in order to make progress in mining. ARU was one of the 4. Obviously they liked the format of how we hired locals, how we tried to assist local villages, just the overall package. Why negotiate with us if there is no future mining? Why spend time drafting mining laws with no mining industry? Why make a national radio speech about how important mining is and how people should fight the treehuggers.

Is there conflicting news coming out of Ecuador? You bet. Combine that with the spanish english translations...heck look at the difficulty we had last night with one word. I think we are still dealing with a lot of ignorance re mining in general. Also the economic background of the costs of mining. On one hand Acosta says they don't want any amateurs involved, and at the same time he doesn't want monopolies. He has said he didn't want mining, then he didn't want open pit mining, then as long as the locals and the environment were looked after- he might be able to live with it. He's all over the board. But Correa has not waivered.

Concessions, even if they take some back, our stock is based on FDN. Whether there is FDN + 2 concessions or FDN + 37 concessions, it's not reflected in our price. Would I prefer we keep them...of course.

This will affect CTQ a lot more than ARU. DMM puts it in perspective re we'll be mining in Ecuador for 40 years, what's 6 months?

I'm not up on latin american politics, but I wouldn't put it past them to play good cop bad cop. We've seen posts on here aluding to softening us up in negotiations, softening up the retail shareholders.

Are the funds going anywhere? My gut feel is no, because 6 months they get back their recent losses and make that profit they've been waiting for. Funds invest in the what we have. The politics were already baked in. My opinion only.

It appears now that Patrick and crew have been in Ecuador since early last week. That's good to hear. There's nothing you can do other than say what you can to whoever will listen, while still trying to be polite...we have to deal with these guys the day after...

What makes it worth the fight...20 mm oz. and possibly more. We weren't looking as good as the best case scenarios of a quick buyout, but we sure aren't as bad as the worst case scenarios today.

In my opinion, worst case we have to wait out 180 days. Best case, clarification from Correa, Acosta and boys, the loophole allowing us to continue drilling, continue employing 400 ecuadorians, continue negotiating agreement. Draft mining law Monday & completed by end of May.

I won't go on because people here aren't in the mood. Bottom line is the reason they started this mandate was to reclaim unused concessions. That makes sense. Why. Cause they want them exploited. Why? So they can benefit from the mining taxes and employment. You see, they get it. They are creating a national mining co. fashioned after Chile. Also a positive. They're not putting on hardhats going under to get the gold themselves. This company is going to regulate where these newfound concessions go. But, as you well know, you can spin each and every action in a negative way. Trick is get to the meat- good or bad.

all this IMO, do your own DD

safeharbour