I expect our SP today would take a beating, after all bad news selling usually lasts for three days, and today is day three. Let's hope it is anyway.

Like most of the longs here, I froze like a scared deer when it really hit on last Friday and I am too deep in the red to sell now. At this point there is really not much we can do except to wait out this situation. In so doing several thoughts actually cross my mind.

Would a major consider this a golden opportunity to scoop up ARU very cheap. After all the Bear Stearn episode is still very fresh in our minds. No sooner than they announced that they were broke, a predatory offer of $2 offer was made virtually on the spot which eventually became $10.

I kind of sense that a fire sale buyout could be a possiblity and if that happens it will be within a month. ARU's Management should be totally fed up with Ecuador by now, and most retail holders are dying to get out. So what better chance for a major to scoop up the FDN reserves for pittance, say $9 or $10 tops. It would be a steal, of course. If you have deep pockets you can wait out the current regime in Ecuador, besides FDN will not be producing at the earliest three years from now. Timing is perfect when the fear factor is at its highest.

The other thought was what about "Weiner Boy & Company"? These weasels were hard at work when our SP was between $8 to $9. Assuming that they did managed to accumulate a seizable block, they would be even deeper underwater than I am (what a nice thought). These are professionals and I am sure they would try their hardest to reverse the magic and pump our SP back up ASAP. Is that a possibility?