El Comercio - Quito - Ecuador 12 de mayo del 2008

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The Final Battle
By Carlos Larreátegui

It is undeniable that some governments of the new Latin American left have begun to show signs of fatigue. The defeat of Chávez in the referendum, the collapse of the popularity of Fernandez in Argentina, the cracking of Morals in Bolivia and the decline of Ortega in Nicaragua, mark an inflexion point that could alter the Latin American political map.

The Government of the citizen's revolution of Ecuador, in spite of its relatively short excercise of power, also exhibits some signs of wearing down. The level of credibility of the Constituent Assembly has descended dramatically and the support of the President suffers a slow but systematic decline. For a Government who disdains the institutions, and whose power and margin of action depends on public opinion, the reduction in popularity could become a serious threat.

Until a few months ago it was unthinkable that the government of president Correa could be defeated in the referendum approval scheduled for the second semester of the year. It is clear that this popular consultation will not turn on the Constitution nor on the laws or mandates approved by the Assembly. The consultation will be a vote of confidence or distrust towards the President of the Republic.

The present numbers of approval of the governmental management approach limits that, for the first time, put in doubt the triumph of the Regime. In accordance with the rules established by the Constitution, the decision adopted will be obligatory if the popular decision counts the endorsement of the absolute majority of voters, that is to say, more than fifty percent of the effective votes.

The test for the President of the Republic is extremely hard and time is his worse enemy. With an uncontrollable inflation, an increasing unemployment, and the unquestionable loss of prestige of the Assembly due to failure of expectations generated in the campaign, he will not continue to gain many followers.

For the Government it is imperative to gain popular consent and thus to consolidate politically, to obtain the deepening of the "socialist" reforms and to reach the full extent of the presidential period. An electoral defeat in the referendum would reduce its manoeuvring margin drastically and would pulverize the new Constitution, the constituent mandates and laws. Chaos would be inevitable.

The Government and its President will fight to the death to gain a clear victory in the referendum and to avoid the decline that affects several socialist governments of the region. Without an organized and monolithic opposition, the fight by referendum could not be conventional. The opposition groups will be forced to wage a guerrilla war with mobile commandos who will politically attack the Regime from different angles and sectors. Nothing is clear so far.

[trans. ebear]