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Message: Ecuador's Correa lacks votes for constitution-poll

http://tinyurl.com/5u5sh3

Google translation:

Polls indicate that among those already decided how to vote, 41% would do so by Yes.

Over 60% of the population not yet decided how to vote in the referendum approving the new constitution is drawn up in Ciudad Alfaro, according to polls Confidential Report, Santiago Perez and Cedatos.

The first placed the figure at 67%, the second at 68% and the third at 78%.

But for those already decided, 41% favoured the Yes.

The Constituent Assembly has approved, at the time, 57 articles, ie a little over one sixth of its contents. Full decided to extend its work two months.

The survey of confidential information, with a sample of 1,400 cases, reveals that 29% of Ecuadorians had already decided how to vote, while not 67%.

The survey of Santiago Perez (who is studying opinion to the government of Rafael Correa), with a sample of 820 people, maintains that 32% already decided how to vote and 68% "has not yet thought about how to vote."

A third pollster, Polibio Cordova, director of Cedatos, argues that indecision reaches 78%.

Santiago Nieto, Informe Confidencial, attributed the high percentage of undecideds to the Constituent "is not something that interested him to the people."

People thought that the Assembly was going to do something else (to employ or lower the cost of living) and the campaigns of the assembly were providing water, schools ... nobody said 'I will make the Constitution', explained Nieto.

While Perez cree that the reason for this is that "far from an issue that is at the moment is floating as a concern in most public opinion" and "there is no constitutional text on which to judge."

People begin to take a decision in late July or August, when the work of the Assembly is already advanced.

Beyond the difference in the findings, the two surveys are consistent with the percentages of those who vote for them or favour (41% and 42%), not by or against, whites and void if the votes would have been the day he became the measurement.

Also the company Cedatos has similar results: 41% vote for the Yes 31% No and by 28% do not know.

But the surveys also made regarding confidence in the Assembly (Santiago Perez) and the management of the Assembly (Confidential Report).

Perez acknowledges that confidence in the Assembly has fallen in recent months from 22% in January to 5% in May (in the parameter "a lot").
But between the Government, Armed Forces, the Assembly, provincial councils, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the Supreme Court, the Constituent is in third place.

While in the survey confidential information there is a tie of 46% among those who approve and disapprove of the management of the Assembly.

To Nieto this is justified if one takes into account that, according to the measurement, 32% of those questioned cree that the Assembly will be better than the Congress, 37%, which is equal to 25% is worse.

In his radio link on Saturday, President Correa admitted that the credibility of the Assembly has decreased, "probably because the mistakes of the assembly but with the collaboration of the press unhealthy." And he cited as an example the proposal to "rethink" the meaning of the symbols he made his coidearia Tania Hermida.

"That Assemblyman has the right to express his judgement ... But it was a political mistake because it opened more fronts, and this has served to tremendous smear campaign in the press that has done harm to the Assembly, "he said.

Correa stressed that "doing nothing", 47% of the population is ready to approve the constitution without know: "That policy is called hard vote."
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