I'm sure you've all heard the expression "people get the government they deserve." Doug Casey repeats it ad nauseum. Well, the people of Ecuador sure don't deserve this one, and they'll soon make their feelings known.

Proposed changes to the election code make it mandatory to have 5% of the signatures of qualified voters in order to form a political party. This is obviously a ploy to secure AP's position and eliminate minor parties, but it could blow up in their face. People are angy enough now to put aside regional and ideological differences and form a new party. Some defection from AP is assured, either to run with the new party or as independents.

This is a country filled with irony, and the supreme irony may be that this failed experiment in 21st century socialism (which really belongs in the 19 century) will ultimately result in a two party democratic system with the AP in opposition, and a scattering of independents. In other words, the best possible outcome. The government they truly deserve.

The situation is very fluid, and this outcome is by no means assured, but it's a real possibility. If it happens, I'll definitely review my outlook on investing in Ecuador, as we may finally have some people in power who know how to run a government, and more to the point, an economy.

ebear