Well, "legal certainty" is what we all want, albeit if it comes from the constitution or the mining law.

Right now there is so much confusion about what are in the mining law or the constitution, and how these two documents interact with one another. So far all we have are hearsays and personal interpretations. Perhaps we should all wait for the mining laws and see where that takes us first. One worry at a time.

***

People here are assuming there's even going to *be* a government after Sept. 23. That is by no means certain. As I pointed out a while back, there's no possible way they'll have the constitution finished on time. It was an optimistic timetable to begin with, and they've wasted far too much time on petty squabbles and personal agendas, and have already used up the only extention the law allows. This is all confirmed in Otto's latest missive. Their only hope now is to cut and paste sections from the 1998 constitution (the 19th since the country was formed) and hope no one notices.

Look, to hold a referendum, you have to *have* something to vote on, and at this point they have nothing. That's why the draft mining law gave us no lift, and why the final version won't either. We may get a mild breeze for a day or two, but this thing is going nowhere until we know who'll form the NEXT government.

And here we enter the great unknown that markets are so fond of. Nobody knows what's going to happen next, or if they do, they aren't talking. The government is in full court press trying to get the yes vote out in a desperate attempt to direct attention from the fact that there's nothing to vote yes on. They're cutting side deals, for example, with the municipalities of Manabi: get out the yes, and we'll fix your roads. They're trying to scare people, telling them a no vote means a guarranteed return of the "partidocracy" the derisive term for the comfortable old boys club of fake democrats previously in charge. They've even conjured up fear of the country splitting apart, a la Bolivia, which is absurd on the face of it.

In short, these guys are desperate. A large number of people voted for Correa simply because they had no other choice. It was him or Noboa. That's what you get in a multi-party electoral system where run-offs decide the winner. Many of the people that *did* vote for Correa did so on the assumption they were voting for progressive reform, not radical transformation of every aspect of their lives. These people are really pissed off now and will vote NO regardless of what's in the document. If it promised them free beer and football tickets for the rest of their lives, they'd still vote NO! That's how pissed off they are.

The referendum isn't about the consitution anymore. At one point it was, but now it's just a referendum on Correa, and perhaps Acosta. Look at the polls. Add up the decided yes and nos. It's a big number. Now tell me, how could you possibly KNOW which way to vote on something that doesn't even exist yet? This is pure Kafka. We've already reached a verdict, your honour. Now we'll hear testimony for the defense.

This thing is split down the middle, and there's no way to call it with any certainty. It is truly a case of wait and see. Sept 23rd, not July 27th, is the date you should mark on your calendar, boys. July 27th is irrelevant compared to what happens on Sept 23.

ebear