On that note, what Otto described is tame and not impossible.

That's true. Correa has the power of presidential decree under the 1998 constitution (something the old boyz club never dreamed would be turned against them). So, yes, he could extend the deadline, even though the date is carved in stone (I think they're using pumice).

Would he? Or is he better off with Acosta on the sidelines? Don't forget, the timetable wasn't the only point of contention. From what I've heard, Acosta also objected to the way successive presidential terms would be effected. Under Correa's proposal, his current term wouldn't count, which would make him eligible to run for two more 5-year terms, starting in 2009. Correa for the next ten years? That sticks in the craw of a few people, who've compared it to Chavez's recent attempt to become President for Life.

You know, it's fun to analyize this stuff, but I keep coming back to joeking's point. It really is all about the economy. If they don't get it turned around soon, they never will. That's because a) the dollar is their currency, and if that goes, so do they. b) the market only has so much patience. I'm sure Correa has a much better sense of that now than before the mining mandate. My guess is Acosta told him "don't worry Raf.... the market will take a short term hit, but they'll be back. It's a bull market in metals, we have the goods, and after all, we're talking greedy capitalists here. So a few of them leave? Que les vayan bonito! There's always more where they came from."

Well, that may be true for oil, but is it really true for gold and copper? And can you afford to sit around waiting to find out? And what about all the other vital projects? Airport, seaport, railway, road, flood control, sanitation, hydro-electric? Where's the money going to come from for that? Venezuela? China? Now you're playing on their terms. Wouldn't Canada be a better long-term partner?

I think the recent scramble to cut "big oil" a better deal speaks volumes to Correa's understanding of the situation. Chiriboga's known it all along of course, but he's been a voice in the wilderness while the politics play out. That situation seems to have turned now. Look for more of Chiriboga in the days ahead. That's the clue that will tell you they finally "get it."

ebear