Thinking out loud
posted on
Jul 25, 2008 05:55AM
The company whose shareholders were better than its management
As much as I admire my pal Otto, I have to respectfully disagree with his direction here.
I don't think we are dead in the water, I don't think this is the end of the road, I don't think this is the final bid.
I don't have a room of witnesses to call under oath that will give us the truth on this matter.
All I have is a gut feel after almost 3 years of following this stock.
I think that management 'accepted' this deal as friendly 1) so that the poison pill could/would not be pushed by shareholders 2) because it was probably inspired by anderson in the first place 3) it's purpose is to start bidding and had they not accepted it, there would be no clock ticking...the big boys would have just sat back and said, we'll wait and see how many unacceptable bids you get.
But now, this undervalued offer leaves the door for other bids wide open. Pretty hard to sit back and say I couldn't afford to bid more. Also pretty hard to explain to ABX/Newmont/Goldcorp shareholders at the next AGM we didn't think it was a good value to pick up 20 million oz+ at $10.00 a share.
so now it's game on...
Majors can put up or shut up
If they shut up, I've been way off track and a poor reader of the situation
But why did Keith find it necessary to remove himself from management that are now locked up in this deal? How many shares are locked up now? not including Keiths? Where will Keith be voting his shares?
This has been in the works since before Keith left I am surmising.
He's now a free agent to vote his 10% any which way he thinks. I think the remaining shares tied up by management are insignificant compared to Keiths total. So the real 'management' shares are NOT locked up.
Kinross is being paid well as a pawn. They know it. But shareholders have been waiting a long time. As Joeking asked for, let's get this thing moving, and now it is. Any better offer will be read as such by management. That's why there is break free charges. Why put $71 million in the coffers? More options perhaps. What if by chance Kinross IS the best offer. We could always break free at the last moment with $43 m of the $71 m provided by Kinross and still survive indepently to live another day.
These are merely my thoughts...just thinking out loud.
Agree or disagree, its just food for thought
safeharbour