Re: have filed with TSX, OSC and Recol..
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 27, 2008 05:54PM
The company whose shareholders were better than its management
So Have I !!!
I also herby nominate Safeharbour, Laross19, hawnkoa, wes11. ebear, opgtrader, bgold for the NEW ARU BOD!
I humbly accept the position of CBO (Chief Bear Officer) and hereby pledge that no bears will be harmed in the building of this mine!
Just as a side note... someone mentioned buying call options on Kinross, as a possible move in case (Lord forbid) the deal goes through, That way one could still play the ARU position with a great potential.. Your thoughts?
Dammit! I was just talking to my wife about this. Well, that cat's out of the bag...lol. Having traded options before, I'll just point out that timing is very important, as is premium. You have to get both right or you'll lose money for sure.
Calls on Kinross are a bet the stock will climb substantially once the market recognizes the value of the combination. So how long will that take, and how much are you willing to pay for the privilege of finding out? Study some other takeovers, like the Goldcorp/Glamis deal, to get a feel for the timeframe involved.
Don't forget, you'll have some former Aurelian investors trying the same thing, so the calls could go to a premium pretty fast. It could also take a while for the full value of Kinross to be realized, so you'd want long dated in the money calls. Don't be tempted by far out of the money calls - they are cheap for a reason.
A better strategy might be to sell short dated covered calls and roll them forward until you get taken out. This is definitely the way to go if you're looking to lighten up on Kinross, which many of us will be doing since we were overweight Aurelian to begin with. Bear this in mind when buying calls. There's going to be some selling pressure in this stock for some time after the deal. Not all of us want to own Kinross, and those who do probably already have their positions and will be lightening up as well.
HTH
ebear