No Worries

Posted by: Fearless on August 20, 2008 07:56PM

We are getting closer to the dead line and I have no worries at all. Even though I do not expect that we will get a counter bid before the dead line, because that would lessen the effect of this little charade.

In my opinion, K has a snowballs chance in hell of actually taking over ARU. In fact, I would be very surprised if they actually were even to get 20% of the outstanding shares.

If this board is typical of the sentiment regarding this proposed merger then there is no chance of the deal going through. Typically, retail investors are the least knowledgable and most uninformed of the market participants. If we think the deal stinks, then just imagine what more informed investors such as big fund managers think.

In my opinion the only time fund managers hype something up is after they have finished accumilating all they can or wish to dump a position.

The CEO of Vale held a press conference a couple of weeks ago. He had in my opinion some very interesting comments to make.

He stated that Vale had no interest in aquiring Freeport or Anglo. It would seem my comments in this regards was also right on. He also said that Vale was only interested in small to medium sized aquisitions at the moment. He stated that the aquisistions they are interested in making, are those that would bring long term strategic importance , not just those that would make them the largest at the moment. He also said that they more interested in growing by grass roots exploration in the future and increasing there production of copper.

He also stated that the company was commissioning 12 of the largest bulk ocean going ore ships in order to service there asian customers.

Last year vale annouced that they were interested in increasing there exposure to gold also.

Now what country in South America has remained largely unexplored, sits atop many intersecting fault zones and has the potential to be a grass roots exploration meca. This country is also host to two of the largest undeveloped gold and copper properties in the world, both held by junior companies.

Resently Chinese investors toured the property of the company that owns the copper deposit.

A chinese company also started a modernization and expansion of the deep water port in this country last year.

With Vale being a Brazilian company with many operations already in South America and this country almost a neighbour. Along with the increasing stability and co-operation between South American countries. One would think that they would be interested in such an opportunity to aquire such key assets that would fit the CEO's future vision like a glove.

With the failed takeover of Xstrata, which was valued in the 90 billion range, a few billion for Vale is pocket change. Then again they did quickly raise 10.5 billion in cash for some mysterious reason. This I would imagine still only represent a medium size aquisition to them.

I wonder what company there is in this country that has a world class gold deposit, multiple copper and gold targets, could provide years of grass roots exploration and who has on the board of directors a merger specialist who already has done a deal resently with Vale.

This company is at present up on the auction blocks and just waiting for a serious bid hahahahahahahaha.

Oh, one more thing, the CEO of Vale mentioned that they would anounce there future aquisition plans within the next 2 months. This would put it by around the middle of October latest hmmmmmm.

Regards,

F.F.