Aurelian Resources Was Stolen By Kinross and Management But Will Not Be Forgotten

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Message: According to this... Friday should be nice......

According to this... Friday should be nice......

posted on Aug 21, 2008 08:08PM


Ouzilly, France - Melbourne, Australia

Friday, 22 August 2008

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From Dan Denning at the Old Hat Factory in Melbourne:

--What a difference a day makes. Or does it?

--Commodities are on the verge of their biggest one-week really in 33 years, according to Bloomberg. Gold was up US$25 overnight (2.7%). Oil rallied five bucks. The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index tacked on 3.7% yesterday alone. If it can keep itself together Friday, the index will be looking at a one week gain of 6.7%.

--So is this the second coming of the commodity bull market? Or is it just a blip of a rally? The answer matters. If the short-dollar trade is fully liquidated, then the decks are clear for commodities to resume their long-term ascent. But momentum comes and goes quickly these days.

--Perhaps we should keep an eye on what started the whole resource rally in 2003, namely, a lack of investment in supply and brand new growth in demand. That's how resource and China bull Jim Rogers sees it. "Until either a lot of supply comes on stream or the economy collapses, the bull market will continue," Rogers told Bloomberg.


--The short-financial trade is tired, but maybe not dead yet. Today's Financial Times reports that Lehman Brother's is trying to sell pieces of itself to foreign investors before having to report another US$3 billion loss in early September.

--Lehman has already reported nearly US$12 billion in losses since the onset of the credit nightmare. Its stock has fallen by 85%. And the FT reports that talks to sell 50% of itself to the Korea Development Bank and China's Citic Securities fell through because both bidders said Lehman's asking price was far too high, given the distressed state of its assets.

--You get the feeling Lehman is like a man so desperate for cash that he'll sell certain vital bodily organs for cash. The commercial real estate portfolio is valued at US$40 billion. The wealth asset management group, US$10 billion.

--The trouble is there aren't many organs a man can really do without. You can part with a kidney and maybe some bone marrow, or other bodily fluids. But try to donate your brain, your heart, or your lungs and you'll soon be a corpse, where the sum of the parts are worth more than the whole. Once people realise that, Wall Street is going to look awful



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