Aurelian Resources Was Stolen By Kinross and Management But Will Not Be Forgotten

The company whose shareholders were better than its management

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Message: Re: Reality Check
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Sep 01, 2008 03:26PM

Well at least Brit, waited a respectable amount of time before replying hahahahahahahahaha.

I believe the quick turnaround on this group is one of its best features.

Ebear, obviously you have not been reading my posts. Perhaps you just do not understand what I am saying.

Why would you say that? I read all the posts here. As a hub leader, it's my job to know what's going on.

Perhaps you could enlighten us as to your target price for a takeover and justify it.

Well, first of all, the point I was responding to was Brit's statement:
"BTW $60.00 a share is nothing short of ludicrous at this stage." (italics mine)

The key phrase being, at this stage.

I have my shares on Level II @ $22. That's what I consider a fair price at this stage - which is to say, sometime between this fall when we get the mining law, and next summer, when the politics have settled down and it's clear this govt. will be around for a while. Do I expect to get 22? Not really, which is why I came up with Plan B, which if you've been reading me, consists of a JV plus financing with the Ecuadorean Govt. along the lines of the Codelco model, which has been very successful in Chile.

That's my target. Build the company with Ecuadorean financing and leave Bay St. out in the cold. Then leverage our position to expand in Ecuador and surrounding nations. If we do that, and the resource proves out as you expect, then yes, our stock will be worth $60. I give it about 5 years.

I would like to get your thoughts on this so that when the final takeover is announced in the next 3 or 4 months. We will see who was closer to reality then.

Why does it matter? I'm not competing with you. I'm just a businessman that sees a once in a lifetime opportunity. If others don't see it and want to sell early, I guess that's their perogative. That said, I'm realistic about the chance of MY plan ever coming to fruition. As I see it, that's just a refection of the near-sightedness of most players in this industry. They really don't grasp the difference between owning stock and owning companies. They should read Warren Buffett or Ben Graham. Sure, it's tougher now than in their day, what with everyone speculating and turning on a dime, but the opportunities are always there if you know how to sniff them out, and we bears have very good noses.

I am curious Ebear, do you like bear markets as well.

About as much as I like thinly veiled inuendo.

But yes, bear markets are necessary and healthy. We got into the current mess by trying to prevent bear markets from asserting themselves. Over the last decade, every time a bear market has threatened, up popped the Fed with an easy money tax payer sponsored bailout. As a result, we've had the Nasdaq bubble, the Bond Bubble, the Housing Bubble, the CDO/ABS Bubble, the Commodity Bubble, the Emerging Market Bubble (did I miss any?) every last one of them fostered by enough easy money and reckless lending to keep JM Keynes spinning in his grave for the next thousand years.

So yeah. I welcome a bear market. Bring it on, and let's get things back to their intrinsic value, instead of throwing around prices like 1.2 million for a freaking bungalow in West Vancouver, or $60 for a junior mining stock that any reasonable analyst can see is worth about 15 bucks under current conditions. I say it's more, but then I understand the politics better than they do.

ebear

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