Re: Reality Check
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 01, 2008 09:57PM
The company whose shareholders were better than its management
About as much as I like thinly veiled inuendo.
Well, in your whole reply we can agree on this one statement. I do not care for thinly veiled inuendo either.
Then we'll just have to use a thicker veil, won't we?
I will take it from this statement of yours (Do I expect to get 22? Not really,) that your reply to my question of what ARU will be taken out at is < $22.
Please correct me if I have interpreted the peculiar phrasing of your answer wrongly.
Sorry you find my phrasing peculiar. How's my spelling?
At this stage, I once again see an offer of $60 otherwise I would not have stated so at this time. But then, I also understand the politics and mining better than most,having actually worked in such countries.
Yes, we're well aware of how much better you understand these things than we do. How could we not be, since you're constantly reminding us?
Who said that we were in competion?
You did:
"I would like to get your thoughts on this so that when the final takeover is announced in the next 3 or 4 months. We will see who was closer to reality then."
Any other explanation for your peculiar interest in my takeover price? Why does it matter to you? Did I ask for your takeover price? As I've stated before, I'm not interested in a takeover. I put up 22 on Level II because it looks good. If we get an offer in that neighborhood I'll think about it, and if the consensus is favorable maybe I'll vote my shares. It's not like I have millions of them, so who even cares what my target is, or yours for that matter?
It seemed to me that my analysis had been called into question. I just cared to hear your commentary. Though I did not see any hard numbers on your part as to why you believe the deposit is worth $22 in a takeover at this stage.
Do you have any such figures to back that up or is that just your gut feeling?
Look, there's a broad consensus on what this thing is worth, and it's nowhere near $60. Everyone and their aunt has set targets of 10, 15, 20, some as high as 25. Name one analyst out there with a target of $60. Frankly, I think your analysis is flawed for the simple reason that it fails to account for the market's perception of political risk. You contradict yourself actually. You put a target of 60 out there, when earlier you wove this grand conspiracy of how the Ecuadorean govt was behind the manipulation. So which is it? We're getting $60 despite that, or because of it?
Lets be clear about one thing here, OK? I think this discovery is worth way more than $60, which is why I don't want to sell. That said, I don't see it getting there in the next 3-4 months, which is the range you set for the buyout. Now if I'm wrong, I'll admit it. But will you? Or will you just dodge and weave and make excuses?
I guess we'll see.
And that's all I have to say about that.
In my opinion, do not hold you breath hoping for a joint venture between ARU and Equador to develop FDN. The likelyhood of that is about as much as IF ungulates become airborne.
or of a takeover at $60.
ebear