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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research

Ecuadorians May Ratify New Constitution

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for a new constitution is increasing in Ecuador, according to a poll by Santiago Pérez Investigaciones y Estudios. 56 per cent of respondents would vote in favour of the new body of law in an upcoming referendum on its adoption—up six points since mid-August—while 23 per cent would vote against it.

An additional nine per cent of respondents would cast a null vote, and 12 per cent would cast a blank ballot.

Rafael Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Álvaro Noboa of the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January 2007, and vowed to change the country’s Constitution. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In April 2007, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. In September, Correa’s supporters—running under the Movement Country (MP) banner—secured 80 seats in the 130-member Constituent Assembly, enough to enact changes without seeking compromises with political opponents. In November, Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly officially began its work, and suspended the National Congress.

On Jul. 18, a full constitutional draft was approved by the pro-government majority in the Constituent Assembly. Opposition members had stopped working on the document a week earlier and have said they will officially oppose it even if they cannot influence the final decision. The text includes a clause allowing for one consecutive presidential re-election. Two articles that would have legalized same-sex unions and given the indigenous Quechua tongue the status of official language were pulled out at the last minute.

The Electoral Court of Ecuador has scheduled the referendum for Sept. 28. The proposed constitution can only be ratified if the "Yes" side garners the support of more than 50 per cent of all participating voters.

On Aug. 28, León Roldós—a member of the Constituent Assembly and a former vice-president of Ecuador—asked the Attorney General’s Office to investigate the final draft of the proposed constitution because, according to him, some articles were "changed." Roldós assured that he would provide proof that "this book is a fraud," adding, "This is not the book that was approved by the Constituent Assembly."

Polling Data

How would you vote in the constitutional referendum?

Source: Santiago Pérez Investigaciones y Estudios
Methodology: Interviews with 5,080 Ecuadorian adults, conducted on Aug. 29 and Aug. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.