New Constitution Set to Pass in Ecuador

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The number of people in Ecuador who plan to support a new constitution has dramatically increased in less than one month, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 55 per cent of respondents would ratify the new charter in this month’s referendum, up 11 points since mid-August.

Rafael Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Álvaro Noboa of the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January 2007, and vowed to change the country’s Constitution. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In April 2007, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. In September, Correa’s supporters—running under the Movement Country (MP) banner—secured 80 seats in the 130-member Constituent Assembly, enough to enact changes without seeking compromises with political opponents. In November, Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly officially began its work, and suspended the National Congress.

On Jul. 18, a full constitutional draft was approved by the pro-government majority in the Constituent Assembly. Opposition members had stopped working on the document a week earlier and have said they will officially oppose it even if they cannot influence the final decision. The text includes a clause allowing for one consecutive presidential re-election. Two articles that would have legalized same-sex unions and given the indigenous Quechua tongue the status of official language were pulled out at the last minute.

On Sept. 4, the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie) called for a "Yes" vote, but criticized the final draft. Conaie president Marlon Santi declared: "The new constitution does not adequately include Conaie’s proposals regarding new rights for the different nationalities and indigenous peoples of Ecuador."

The Electoral Court of Ecuador has scheduled the referendum for Sept. 28. The proposed constitution can only be ratified if the "Yes" side garners the support of more than 50 per cent of all participating voters.

Polling Data

How would you vote in the referendum to ratify the new constitution?

Source: Cedatos/Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,970 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from Sept. 2 to Sept. 6, 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.