kinross stock is one of those subjects that is hard to view dispassionately. i had always considered them to be a third-rate company. if you wanted to invest in a mid-tier producer, agnico-eagle and yamana were better choices because of their growth profile. kinross was due to see production start declining a few years from now.

in addition, there is the problem you mentioned with russian exposure. my experience with silver standard and its lunnoe project tells me that the russian government makes up the rules as it goes along. currently foreign corporations are not allowed to hold more than 50% ownership in a project. kinross owns 75% of kupol, and they are grandfathered despite the current rule.

how long is that going to last? when the russian economy starts having serious problems, it could be all too easy for putin and medvedev to blame foreigners. a reduction of the kinross share of kupol to 50% (or less) might be the result. this is getting into political areas where i am not an expert.

i think a lot will depend on the election in november. if mccain is elected, we could see nato membership offered to ukraine and georgia. that is just trying to provoke the russians to some form of retaliation. nato stands for "north atlantic treaty organization" and those countries are in russia's backyard, a long way from the atlantic. while it is a good sign that the russians allowed kupol to go into production, i don't know how long kinross will be allowed to maintain majority ownership of it.

the reason i expect to hold my kinross shares is fruta del norte, the same reason i bought aru in the first place. it will be four years before fdn goes into production, but when it does, the kinross production profile will change from declining to growing. the last i saw they had 47 million oz. of reserves, but that doesn't count fdn, which is still a resource.

the bottom line is that i have always viewed fdn as a company maker; i just didn't want it to be kinross. but after listening to the presentations by the mining companies in denver, it starts to make sense. the "good" mining companies, like goldcorp and agnico-eagle don't need fdn because they already have strong growth profiles, and can do without the political risk of ecuador. but a company like kinross needs something like fdn, and is willing to roll the dice on the the politics of ecuador.

ultimately i see fdn proving up 20+ million ounces and that is just for starters. the pull-apart basin is 7km long and should ultimately produce a lot more than that. and there is still the faulted off western extension waiting to be found. just because patrick couldn't find it doesn't mean tye burt's geologists won't (or haven't already.)

finally there is a district-sized land package in an unexplored country that is next to peru. kinross just locked up some of the most prospective geology in the world and there is no telling what they will find in the other 35 concessions. they have more money than aurelian had, and can step up the pace of exploration.

so if you trust the politicians in ecuador to keep their word, the operations down there should more than make up for anything that goes wrong in russia. again, that is only my opinion, and you will need to judge the risk and reward against that of juniors selling at give-away prices according to your situation.