Re: Still time to buy
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 18, 2010 04:01AM
Baja Mining Corp. is a Canadian mining company. Baja, through Minera y Metalurgica del Boleo S.A.P.I. de C.V. (MMB), owns a 10% interest in the Boleo copper-cobalt-zinc-manganese project located in Baja California Sur, Mexico.
I have positive but much more conservative view.
I agree that all the metals will be extracted at ZERO production cost.
Annual copper production is 55500 tons or approximately 125 mln. lbs.
Gross profit is USD/lbs 3.0 (please note that part will be hedged) or gross profit of USD 375 mln.
Total debt will be close to USD 900 mln and at 6-7% per annum annual interest payment will average USD +/- 50 million over the number of years. General and administrative costs and OTHER always existing may approximate USD 30 mln annually.
Thus, Profit before taxation is 375-50-30=295 million.
Taxation of 25% will leave the project with approximately USD 225 million NET PROFIT.
How much will belong to Baja Mining?They now own 70% and Dreyfus will own 20% of this (I expect they exercise their option to get in.). Current existing Baja shareholders will be left with 70% * (100%-20%)= 56% of the project.
Current Baja shareholders will thus be entitled to 225 * 56% = USD 126 million.
However, number of shares issued is 143 million, certainly all options will be exercised which will bring share capital to over 180 million shares plus private placement just completed = total number of shares 200 million.
Simply divide 126 by 200 to get USD/share 0.63 net profit attributable to Baja Mining shareholders.
Peers?
Freeport-McMoran mines approximately 4 billion copper lbs and has market cap of USD 35 billion = USD/lb 9 copper mined. I think we have to stick to this…
Baja Mining share of the project (56%) * annual production (125.000.000) = 70 million lbs of copper.Expected Baja Mining capitalization 70*9 = USD 630 million divided by 200 shares outstanding results in USD/share 3.15//////
We are smaller (deduct valuation), but the mine is new (increase valuation), add magnesium, deduct the fact it is not so soon, and we are more profitable than FCX.Finally, I believe in share price USD 4-6.But would never expect / dream of ‘USD/share 17 or above’.
By the way, FCX P/E is close to 10. On such a basis, Net profit * 10 = Market Cap of USD 1.260.000.000 divided by 200 million shares is USD/share 6 again.
P.S. I AM IN BAJA LONG TERM FOR THE LONG TIME!!!