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Message: Copper Outlook - Short & Long Term

Copper Outlook - Short & Long Term

posted on Jun 25, 2009 12:41AM

BMO Capital Markets Global Commodity Strategist Bart Melek thinks there is a good possibility of a copper correction of maybe some 20% in the very near term...to a little under $2.

Chinese imports have been stellar. Latest data has imports of the red metal at 422,000 tons -- an increase of "primary" imports of over 40% for the year.

Strong demand from the Middle Kingdom is due to both internal demand and the well documented 'restocking' going on as part of a dollar diversification strategy.

Primary demand has been further strength as 'secondary' sources have been falling due to very poor industrial production, particularly in Japan. This means less scrap metal is available forcing China to look more toward primary copper sources, i.e. new mine production.

Melek thinks Chinese imports, which are price sensitive, could slow down its imports somewhat creating a softening copper price in the short term.

He thinks that supply/demand conditons will tighten towards the end of this year and into 2010, which would translate into higher copper prices.

Looking out to 2011 and beyond, he thinks copper firms even more as many large projects coming online are well down the road.

Hopefully, Kabba will soon be included on that "future project" list.

Full interview on BNN here

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