taken from BSK's web site

Worldwide Uranium Market
The world's 443 operating nuclear reactors generate 370 GWe of electricity annually which corresponds to 16% of worldwide electricity production. A new 2007 report from the IAEA, entitled Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power for the Period up to 2030, forecasts an approximately 2.5%/yr increase in nuclear generation to 447-679 GWe by 2030. This increase is fuelled primarily by burgeoning demand from emerging Asian economies as well as concerns about security of energy supply and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The IAEA notes that 16 of the 31 new reactors under construction at the end of 2006 were mostly in China and Asia. China, which currently derives less than 3% of its energy from nuclear, forecasts a five-fold increase in nuclear generation by 2020 and India plans an eight-fold increase by 2022.

Uranium requirements for the world's nuclear reactors in 2006 are estimated by the World Nuclear Association (WNA) to be 64,200 tU. This demand is forecast to rise to 64,700 tU in 2010, to 81,000 tU in 2020 and finally to 109,100 tU in 2030 based on assumptions of new reactor builds, fuel management (tails assays) strategies and anticipated mine production capabilities. World primary uranium production, however, has averaged only 40,000 tU annually over the last few years and filled only 62% of reactor requirements in 2006. The gap between uranium demand and primary uranium supply (24,200 tU for 2006) has been met by uranium from secondary supplies, including the downblending of ex-military supplies of Russian and USA Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), reprocessing of used nuclear fuel, re-enrichment of depleted uranium tails, and liquidation of utility and US Department of Energy surplus inventories. Secondary supplies of uranium will diminish over time and are forecast to play a decreasing role in fulfilling reactor fuel needs.

Canada, Australia and Kazakhstan are the major producers of primary uranium and accounted for about 60% of the world's primary uranium in 2006. Production primarily came from underground (41%) and open pit (24%) mines, with lesser amounts from by-product operations (e.g. from phosphate, gold, base metal mines)(9%) and ISR (26%). The Red Book reports Identified Resources that can be recovered at a cost less than US$130/kg (or approximately US$50/lb U3O8) total 4.74 million tU, or approximately 75-80 years' production at current rates of consumption. Thus, there are very adequate known supplies of uranium to support the plans for new reactor construction and operation. However, development of these Identified Resources will be dependent on regulatory and environmental considerations, financing, amenability to economic mining methods and political factors.

Consideration of primary uranium production from new and existing mines, as well as available secondary supply sources, indicates that there should be adequate supplies of uranium to meet the fuel demands from the world's expanding fleet of reactors. Commissioning of new mines is a time-consuming process subject to regulatory delays, stakeholder challenges, fiscal policies in the host countries and market conditions. The thirteen-fold increase in world uranium price from 2003 through mid-2007 has prompted a flurry of new exploration activity throughout the world both by juniors and major players. The production from these new sources will be needed to meet the uranium fuel demands of the world's expanding nuclear fleet staring in the 2015-2020 period.

Written by Dr. Clifton Farrell