Manganese macro background as it relates to Cancana
posted on
Jan 25, 2011 05:33AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
First of all - thanks Roumieu.... its going to be great to share info withoout spam and aggravation.
Im envious of all of those who attended the AGM - I look forward to getting along to the next one when we will hopefully be trading at a lot higher than the current $1.19 level
I have copied and pasted a post of mine from yesterday as it is (hopefully) going to be quite innformative to new investors trying to get a handle on the Mn industry dynamics to see where CNY is place.
"By way of refocussing and providing remaining Cancana shareholders with an overview of the industry space we will be operating in, see attached link to an up to date and very interesting Mn Industry overview.......item 4
http://www.ideasfirst.in/Research/SectorTrends.aspx
You can be sure that Vicarage's analyst will be assessing the macro landscape in order to see how competitively positioned Cancana will be if it executes its strategy.... no harm in CNY investors being up to speed as well.
Hopefully it will also serve to bring new CNN investors up to speed as they come on board over the coming weeks.
All in all, manganese is a good investment class to be in over the medium term - and high grade low cost Mn direct ship ore operations like Cancana are just, well.......... beautiful.
Enjoy the weeks ahead everybody!
To summarise the report:
· The Titanic would not have sunk if they had used more Mn in the steel
· Without Mn, steel would not be able to achieve the tensile strength and hardness that makes it such a useful engineering material
· No substitute for Mn in steelmaking... 10kg of Mn required in each tonne of steel
Steelmaking consumes 94% of all Mn ore
· Demand for steel is in a new 'Golden Age' (further 20 yr duration) driven by developing economies seeking to bridge (pardon the pun) infrastructure gaps
· China accounts for 50% of all steel production but has to import all its high grade ore
· China and India account for approx 40% of the worlds population and urbanisation, industrial growth and infrastructure asset creation in these countries is booming
· "You cant make steel without manganese and if you cant make steel the world stops" - Brian Gilbertson ex BHP CEO
· Of the 94% of Mn used in steel, the vast bulk of that input is in the form of Mn alloys - High Carbon Ferromanganese, Refined Ferromanganese and Silico Manganese.
· The different ferroalloys are utilised to create various types of steel - e.g. regular low Mn content construction steel utilises SiMn whereas 'quality' steel products like flats and longs use HC FeMn which can only be made using high grade Mn ore
· The cost of producing ferroalloys for deployment in the steel industry is expensive... the ore cost only represents approx. 40% of the total process cost
· High grade Mn ore achieves a significant premium because it improves ferroalloy production efficiency and reduces waste and environmental impacts
· Most of the large scale Mn ore miners are forward integrated as they own or control ferroalloy smelter plants as well as Mn mines
· Global proven (economically mineable) resources of Mn about 500-600 million tonnes (all grades)
· Mn is 4th most used metal in terms of tonnages after Iron, Aluminium and Copper - Predominant Mn ore is Pyrolusite (MnO2)
· Mn is also used in dry cell batteries, animal feed, cosmetics and medicines
· Our Brazilian neighbour Vale is the largest private sector company in latin America and is one of about 6 or 7 players that dominate the Mn space (Incl. BHP, Eramet, Assmang, Samancor, OMH and ENRC)
· Approx 10m tonnes of Mn ore mined each year - 3m tonnes of that is high grade
· If Cancanca can produce 14,000 tonnes per month (168,000 per annum) we would be responsible for about 5% of the globes high grade Mn production
· Brazils Mn resources are forecast to deplete within 20 years.... as a major forward integrated ferroalloy company, Vale will want to do something about this - and buy up Mn resources in Brazil to feed its plants rather than having to import like China is having to do
· South Africas Mn resources are vast but inaccessible due to infrastructure and power constraint issues
· The amount of Mn ore required to create a tonne of Mn alloy is steadily increasing due to the increasing reliance on lower grade ores
· As a result the premium attached to High Grade ores will continue to grow and countries along Mn majors will continue to seek to acquire High Grade deposits
· The Chinese Yuan is going to have to break its peg with the US Dollar and be revalued upwards within the coming months/years. This will increase Chinas buying power of resources and we can expect increasing Chinese acquisition of high grade Mn resources abroad
· We are already seeing accelerating consolidation driven by OMH, Jupiter, MOIL etc
· Hitachi's Lithium Ion battery technology is reliant on Mn.... if it takes off in terms of cleantech applications (electric vehicles, renewable energy production etc) then Steel will have a competitor for Mn ore
· Predicted CAGR of 5-6% in demand for Mn ore over the coming 5 years
· Because Mn cannot be enriched beyond a certain point, the demand for High Grade Mn ore will increase at a much faster pace